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1. GOOGL +87% vs. NVDA +28% One Year

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2. Open AI vs. Historical Young Start Up Cash Burners

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank On the subject of ChatGPT, it’s been eye-opening to read of the predicted losses that OpenAI will likely experience in the next few years. Based on a Wall Street Journal report, which cited company projections provided to investors over the summer, OpenAI forecasts revenue of $345 billion between 2024 and 2029. Assuming this is all cash, we then calculate $488bn of spending, mainly to pay for access to compute, to arrive at their projected cumulative free cash flow of $143bn. And that was before the most recent announcements of $1.4 trillion in data centre commitments. A broker has more recently said the cash burn could exceed $200bn by 2030.

I thought it would be interesting to look at the largest cumulative losses in history from a young company or a start-up before they turned in a profit. So I asked ChatGPT to give me a table of these companies, detailing the total losses and over which years. We used this to create today’s CoTD. We added in OpenAI’s expected cash burn and also included its rival Anthropic, also using data from the Journal. I double-checked the historic numbers against Bloomberg data and they were broadly in line.

ChatGPT also pointed out that some companies had reported larger annual losses, citing AOL Time Warner’s $99 billion loss in 2002 and a similar size loss for AIG in 2008. Meanwhile, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lost $77bn and $59bn respectively within only three quarters when the GFC struck. However, these were well established companies with long track records of profitability before huge troubles hit.

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3. CSCO Stock About to Get Back to Internet Bubble Highs 25 Years Ago

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4. Holiday E-Commerce Has Tripled in 10 Years

In 2015, just 17% of American online holiday shopping took place on smartphones — a share that’s expected to hit 57% this year, per Adobe estimates. Total online spending has surged more than 3x over the same period and now, with some shoppers turning to AI for product discovery and recommendations, that growth seems likely to continue. Indeed, from November 1 through 28, AI-referred traffic to retail sites was up 805% from the same period last year. More than 4 in 10 consumers already use AI to shop, a survey from Mastercard found — led by 61% of Gen Z, who rely on it for deal-checking and filtering out bogus reviews. www.chartr.com

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5. Ecommerce vs. Department Store

Referral Traffic to Retail Sites from Generative AI +1200% in October…16% More Likely to Purchase -Barrons

Jack Ablin Cresset Capital 

In-store traffic continued its long decline, though the drop was moderate. This year recorded a 3.6% year-over-year decline in Black Friday foot traffic according to RetailNext, while Sensormatic reported a 2.1% slide. These numbers represented an improvement relative to earlier weeks, suggesting that meaningful in-store demand persists, particularly in higher-quality malls and value-focused stores. Observations from multiple malls across the country described steady crowds, even if consumers were more cautious once inside.

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6. S&P 500 Effective Tax Rate Has Been Falling for 40 Years

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7. Housing Market Slowing but Here are Top Cities Increases Since 2020 -Bespoke

Mortgage Rates are Normal…It’s Huge Increase in Home Prices and Lack of Supply

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8. Philadelphia Apartment Searches Coming from NYC

New York City Increasing Apartment Supply Thru Office Conversions

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9. Lifestyle and Environmental Factors for Alzheimer’s

Lifestyle and Environmental Factors

Lifestyle habits and environmental exposures play an important role in brain health and may influence the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease.

• Social Isolation: Social isolation increases the risk of dementia by up to 60 percent.

• Lack of Mental Stimulation: Low cognitive activity can accelerate mental decline, whereas mentally stimulating work is associated with a lower risk of developing dementia later in life.

• Chronic Stress: Chronic stress leads to prolonged elevated cortisol levels. High cortisol can damage the hippocampus, impair neuronal plasticity, promote neuroinflammation, and accelerate amyloid beta and tau pathology.

• Lack of Sleep: Poor or insufficient sleep may contribute to protein buildup. Most people benefit from six to eight hours of uninterrupted sleep each night.

• Unhealthy Diet: Diets high in processed foods, sugar, and unhealthy fats may raise the risk of Alzheimer’s disease by contributing to cardiovascular problems, reduced blood flow to the brain, and neuroinflammation.

• Lack of Exercise: Regular physical activity supports heart health, blood flow, and oxygen delivery to the brain, which helps maintain cognitive function.

• Excess Belly Fat: Excess abdominal fat, particularly visceral fat, promotes chronic inflammation, insulin resistance, vascular dysfunction, hormonal imbalances, and oxidative stress—all of which contribute to brain atrophy and cognitive decline.

• Nutritional Deficiencies: Lack of certain micronutrients—such as manganese, selenium, copper, and zinc, and vitamins A, B, C, D, and E—may increase Alzheimer’s risk. People with Alzheimer’s disease have also been found to have lower brain levels of lutein, zeaxanthin, and lycopene.

• Exposure to Pollutants: Higher exposure to fine particulate air pollution (PM2.5) is linked to more severe Alzheimer’s-related brain changes and greater dementia severity because these tiny particles can travel into the bloodstream and the brain, where they trigger chronic inflammation and oxidative stress.

• Exposure to Environmental Toxins: A 2020 review found that infections caused by viruses, bacteria, or fungi can trigger inflammation, which may gradually shrink brain tissue and contribute to Alzheimer’s disease.

• Nighttime Light Exposure: Greater exposure to outdoor light at night is linked to a higher risk of Alzheimer’s disease, especially in people under 65, because it disturbs the body’s natural circadian rhythm, increases inflammation, and weakens disease resistance.

• Smoking: Smoking damages blood vessels and reduces blood flow to the brain, with studies suggesting a 30 percent to 50 percent increased risk of dementia. Quitting smoking, even later in life, can lower this risk.

Genetics

Both types of Alzheimer’s disease have significant genetic components, although they are driven by different underlying causes, ranging from direct gene mutations to a complex mix of genetic and environmental risk factors.

• PSEN1 or PSEN2 Genes: Early-onset Alzheimer’s can sometimes be inherited, known as familial Alzheimer’s disease, caused by mutations in the APP, PSEN1, or PSEN2 genes. These mutations lead to the overproduction of amyloid beta, which accumulates into amyloid plaques in the brain.

• APOE Gene: The APOE gene is a well-known risk factor for late-onset Alzheimer’s. A 2024 study found that people with two APOE4 genes almost always showed Alzheimer’s-related brain changes by age 55, and most developed abnormal amyloid levels by age 65.

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/alzheimers-disease-most-common-neurodegenerative-disease-here-are-causes

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10. A Neuroscientist’s 5-Step Plan to Upgrade Your Brain

Neuroscience shows metacognition makes you more likely to be successful. Here’s how to strengthen this often overlooked skill. 

EXPERT OPINION BY JESSICA STILLMAN, CONTRIBUTOR, INC.COM @ENTRYLEVELREBEL

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Thomas Edison said that success is “1 percent inspiration and 99 percent perspiration.” But what if his famous formula is missing a key ingredient? What if success demands not just creativity and perseverance, but a third, much less discussed skill? 

Modern neuroscience suggests it does. Research shows mastering this often overlooked ability will not only upgrade your brain, but make it much more likely you’ll achieve your goals (with less perspiration along the way). 

The secret ingredient for success 

What is this magic ingredient? Some scientists call it a strategic mindset. Others term it metacognition. Whatever label you go with, the idea is straightforward enough. Metacognition is thinking about your thinking. It means not just doggedly pursuing your goals but questioning how you pursue them. 

If you’re a student, that might mean evaluating your study techniques. Is rereading the text over and over the most efficient way to study? (Science suggests not.) If you’re playing poker, it could look like observing when you’re letting emotion get in the way of a smart bet. Business leaders might not just ask, “Did I make the right decision?” but also, “Is there a smarter way to make similar decisions in the future?” 

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How CoreWeave Bought and Borrowed Its Way to AI Domination

This kind of strategic thinking can have big impacts, research out of Stanford and the National University of Singapore recently found. Scientists tested more than 850 volunteers chasing a variety of tough goals, from academic excellence to weight loss. The more study subjects employed metacognition, the more likely they were to reach their aims. 

The most successful people, in other words, weren’t necessarily the smartest or the grittiest, though those abilities certainly help. They were the ones who thought about their own thinking, probing for ways to improve. 

Metacognition can be taught 

That’s interesting to know, but the finding isn’t very useful for entrepreneurs unless it’s a skill that can be taught. Helpfully, it can. 

Not only did the researchers find that a strategic mindset makes you more likely to be successful, they also showed that when study participants were explicitly taught about metacognition, their odds of achieving their goals went up. 

“What we know now is that adults seem to naturally vary in their strategic mindset, and that a strategic mindset can be taught,” study co-author Patricia Chen summed up to the BBC. 

5 tricks to upgrade your brain

So how do you teach yourself to reflect on and improve thinking? “Above all, stay curious about how your mind works,” neuroscientist and author Anne-Laure Le Cunff suggested on Big Think recently. 

She went on to offer five specific ideas to upgrade your brain through metacognition: 

· Explain things to yourself. “When learning something new, don’t just read or listen. Ask yourself why it makes sense and how it connects to what you already know,” she writes. Both Bill Gates and Elon Musk have recommended this same technique of trying to hook up new knowledge with previously learned information to speed learning. 

· Study your mistakes. “If something goes wrong, resist moving on too quickly. Instead, dig into what happened: What was I thinking? Where did my reasoning break down? What was I assuming? What would I do differently?” suggests Le Cunff. Get detailed advice on how to learn more from your mistakes here. 

· Think out loud. “When solving a problem or making a decision, narrate your thought process. Speak (or write) what you’re thinking as you think it. This makes your invisible reasoning visible so you can examine it,” she says. Le Cunff is far from the only expert claiming that writing is a powerful way to stress test and clarify your thinking. 

· Check your confidence. “Notice how sure you feel when making a decision. Consider whether your confidence comes from solid evidence or gut feeling, and what information you might be missing,” she says. Psychologists insist that learning to think in probabilities can aid in this process. 

· Notice your thoughts. “Just like in mindfulness meditation, simply observe your mental processes without judgment. You don’t need to meditate for hours; even a few minutes of paying attention to your thinking can be helpful,” Le Cunff concludes. 

Achieve more, sweat less 

All of these practices share a common thread. They nudge you to pay closer, more skeptical attention to your thoughts in progress. Watch yourself think and you’ll find ways to improve your approach to problems. Rather than muscle through with a suboptimal strategy or rickety logic, you’ll avoid pitfalls and proceed more efficiently. 

With respect to Mr. Edison, hard work definitely plays a big part in achievement. But upgrading your brain through metacognition can help you reach your goals with a whole lot less unnecessary perspiration. 

www.inc.com

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