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1. 90% of Iranian Oil Exports Go to China

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2. More Demand from Energy Grid…Summer AC Use at Records

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3. Wealthiest 10% Now Account for Half of U.S. Consumer Spending

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4. Visa, Mastercard and AMEX Process $28 Trillion Each Year

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5. Credit Card Points are the World’s Third-Largest Currency

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6-7. Real Estate Friday

Home Inventory Increasing and Number of Owners Planning to Sell in Next 6 Months.

Joe notes that we haven't seen inventory build up anything like this since the GFC. And outside that, nothing else in the last 40 years.

The JPM survey sees a jump in homeowners planning to sell in the next ~6 months

Metros with Home Prices Going Negative

The growing list of year-over-year price declines-Wolf Street

In May, the list of year-over-year decliners got a new member, Seattle. In total, of the 33 MSAs here, 18 show year-over-year declines, up from 6 at the end of 2024. In all of those 18 metros, the year-over-year declines worsened.

Year-over-year declines in May:

1. Austin: -5.5%

2. Tampa: -5.5%

3. Dallas: -3.4%

4. Phoenix: -3.4%

5. San Antonio: -3.3%

6. Orlando: -3.2%

7. Miami: -3.2%

8. Atlanta: -2.7%

9. San Francisco: -2.5%

10. Denver: -2.4%

11. San Diego: -1.9%

12. Raleigh: -1.8%

13. Honolulu: -1.7%

14. Houston: -1.5%

15. Sacramento: -1.4%

16. Charlotte: -0.9%

17. Portland: -0.5%

18. Seattle: -0.1% (newest addition)

U.S. Housing Affordability by State

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8. Pew Research on Budget Bill

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9. Your Morning Coffee Can Help You Live Longer — As Long As It’s This Type Of Brew

Coffee carries life-lengthening health benefits, but not if you're adding flavors and creams to it.

In a nutshell

• Coffee drinkers who consumed 1-3 cups daily had a 15-17% lower risk of dying early compared to non-coffee drinkers

• Health benefits only applied to black coffee or coffee with minimal added sugar (less than half a teaspoon per cup) and saturated fat

• Coffee drinks high in sugar and saturated fat showed no protective effects, potentially eliminating coffee’s health benefits entirely

Via StudyFinds — Americans love their coffee, with about half of us reaching for a cup every single day. And here’s some news that might make your morning brew taste even better: that daily coffee habit could be cutting your risk of dying early by up to 17% — but there’s a catch that could cancel out the benefits.

A study tracking nearly 50,000 American adults for more than a decade found that coffee drinkers lived longer than those who skipped their daily caffeine fix. The twist? The life-extending benefits were only seen in people who drank black coffee or coffee with very little added sugar and saturated fat. Those sugary, creamy coffee shop drinks? They offered no measurable health advantage.

According to the study, coffee with higher levels of added sugar and saturated fat was not associated with lower death rates. Moreover, the benefits were not seen in people who preferred a decaf brew. The research took a detailed look at what Americans are actually putting in their coffee, and the findings raise red flags about our sweetened coffee culture.

Nearly 50,000 Americans Tracked for Over a Decade

Researchers from Tufts University analyzed coffee drinking habits and health outcomes in 46,322 adults aged 20 and older who participated in U.S. government health surveys between 1999 and 2018. Participants were followed for roughly 9 to 11 years, with actual mortality outcomes tracked using National Death Index records.

During that time, 7,074 participants died — 1,176 from cancer and 1,089 from cardiovascular disease. Compared to non-coffee drinkers, those who drank coffee had significantly lower mortality rates. The greatest benefit appeared in people drinking 2 to 3 cups a day, who had a 17% lower risk of dying during the follow-up period. Even those who drank less than a cup a day saw an 11% lower risk.

Why Sweetened Coffee May Cancel the Health Benefits

The researchers also examined what went into those cups of coffee. Each beverage was classified based on how much added sugar and saturated fat it contained per 8-ounce serving.

Drinking black coffee was associated with a 14% lower risk of all-cause mortality. Coffee with small amounts of added sugar (under 2.5 grams per cup) and saturated fat (under 1 gram per cup) also showed the same 14% reduction.

But for people drinking coffee with higher amounts of sugar and saturated fat, there was no statistically significant reduction in risk of death. For context, the average U.S. coffee drink contains 3.24 grams of added sugar and 0.52 grams of saturated fat per 8-ounce cup, suggesting that many Americans are overshooting the threshold where coffee may offer health benefits.

Caffeine Key to Longevity

The study, published in The Journal of Nutrition, also found that caffeinated coffee — not decaf — was driving most of the observed health benefits. While decaffeinated coffee showed no clear association with longevity, caffeinated coffee was linked to reduced risk of death from both all causes and cardiovascular disease.

That’s in line with previous research suggesting that caffeine may play a protective role by boosting metabolism, reducing inflammation, and improving insulin sensitivity. Coffee also contains other bioactive compounds like chlorogenic acid and polyphenols that are thought to have antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects.

Interestingly, the protective effects of coffee were only observed among people who did not drink tea. Among tea drinkers, the association between coffee and longevity disappeared, though the study doesn’t explain why.

It’s Best To Be Basic

For the estimated 150 million Americans who drink coffee daily, this study delivers both a bit of good news and a wake-up call. The good news: your coffee habit could be helping you live longer. The reality check: if your go-to drink includes lots of sugar, cream, or flavored syrups, those potential benefits may be lost.

Researchers adjusted for a wide range of lifestyle and health variables, including age, sex, race, income, smoking, alcohol use, exercise, diet quality, and preexisting conditions. Even then, the association between simple coffee and lower mortality still held up.

The takeaway? A basic cup of coffee, especially when consumed black or lightly sweetened, may be one of the healthiest parts of your day. But when that cup starts to resemble dessert and doesn’t have caffeine, the health perks may disappear.

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10. Every Leader Should Be a Student of Psychology

To lead well, one must understand what drives and influences relationships.

Key points

• Leadership is inherently relational, not positional, and technical skills alone are not enough.

• Emotional intelligence is foundational to leadership success.

• The study of psychology should be a deliberate practice for leaders.

Via Psychology Today: There’s a pervasive myth that still lingers in leadership classrooms: the idea that good leaders are simply born with presence, confidence, and instinct. While those traits may help some individuals ascend to positions of authority, they are insufficient for navigating the human complexities that leadership demands. To be effective in today’s ever-evolving organizational landscape, leaders must be students of psychology (in both principle and practice) if they hope to lead effectively.

About Leadership

Three things matter in Leadership: Relationships, Relationships, and Relationships. Leadership is, at its core, a relational practice. It is not about authority (or positional power); it is about influence. And influence is rooted in an understanding of human behavior, motivation, emotion, and interaction. It is important that a leader understand the behavior of others as well as their own.

As I often remind students and colleagues alike, no matter how technically skilled a leader may be, their impact is limited if they cannot connect with, motivate, and adapt to the emotional and psychological needs of their teams. In the program I direct at Teachers College, Columbia University, we require students to take two foundational courses that emphasize this belief: Self-Awareness Training and Social-Emotional Learning.

Emotional Intelligence: Leadership’s Secret Ingredient

One of the most foundational psychological principles in leadership is emotional intelligence (EI), a concept introduced by Mayer and Salovey1 and later popularized by Daniel Goleman. Goleman’s research demonstrated that EI contributes more to workplace success than IQ, particularly in high-pressure environments2. Why is that the case? Emotionally intelligent leaders can perceive and regulate their own emotions (especially during stressful moments), empathize with others’ experiences, build trust, and de-escalate conflict.

A study conducted in Palopo, Indonesia, for example, revealed that school leaders with high EI had a direct and positive impact on teacher performance. This success stemmed from their capacity to recognize emotions, manage relationships, and create workplace harmony3.

In practical terms, when individuals feel seen, understood, and supported, their ability to perform and collaborate improves significantly.

Why This Matters

We are living in a time defined by constant change, social complexity, and new demands on leadership. Today’s teams are more diverse, geographically distributed, and dynamic than ever before. Leaders who understand the psychology of their people are more likely to foster positive cultures, reduce conflict, and increase performance/productivity4.

Those who use emotional intelligence and motivational theory to inform their leadership behaviors are not only better equipped to lead diverse teams but also more capable of sustaining organizational well-being over time. The most effective leaders going forward will not necessarily be those with the loudest voices or the most polished résumés. They will be those who understand how people think and feel, who communicate in ways that resonate, and who create environments in which people feel psychologically safe. These are not “soft skills” (as often labeled). They are critical survival skills for effective leadership through today’s challenges.

If you are in a leadership role (or aspire to be in one), consider this your invitation to become a student of psychology. Not for the sake of theory, but for the sake of better practice. Start by exploring the basics: emotional intelligence, motivational theory, and self-awareness. Read. Reflect. Ask better questions. Challenge your assumptions. And above all, lead with curiosity and compassion.

Leadership is not about you. It is about those you serve. And understanding the psychology of leadership may be one of the most powerful tools you can include in your box.

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