TOPLEY'S TOP 10

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1. History of Mid-Term Election Years

Since 1950, buying the S&P 500 at the start of August in a midterm year has been positive 100% of the time. One year later, the average return is north of 19%.

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2. Semiconductor Stocks and Healthcare Stocks Have the Same Forward P/E - Torston Slok

Chipmakers and health care sectors have converged to identical forward P/E ratios for the first time in years, see chart below.

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3. Big Tech Set to Spend 100% of Cash Flow

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4. 86% of S&P Companies Beat Earnings - WSJ

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5. Sideways…Great Earnings…Breakout

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6. Investors are Buying Tech ETFs

The Techening: despite or because of this, investors have piled into tech stocks at an accelerating rate, and implied allocations to tech ETFs have surpassed 50%.

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7. Passive Stock Holdings vs. Active Updated

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8. SPACS are Back

Barrons The shares of the 300 companies that went public via SPACs in 2021 and 2022 dropped an average of 64% in the stock’s first year and about 70% over three years, according to data from University of Florida professor Jay Ritter.“SPACs certainly all got painted with the same brush, for good reason,” says Andrew Jeffrey, an analyst at William Blair. “They’re designed to enrich the initial investors at the expense of public market investors.”

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9. Record Private Loan Defaults

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10. Some 64% of Young Men Day Trading Stocks Feel Like Failures - Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Surging retail trading isn't just transforming markets; it's also highly correlated with demoralization in young men, according to a new study.

One-quarter of men aged 18-29 said they trade stocks daily, and almost two-thirds of them (64%) report feeling like failures, according to a study of 2,000 men published Wednesday by the Institute for Family Studies, a pro-marriage think tank. The findings were strikingly similar to outcomes among men who gamble: Of the 23% of young men who said they gambled daily, including on sports and events, 66% reported similar angst, according to survey, which asked the young men a variety of questions about their personal behaviors and outlooks. Daily fantasy sports and pornography use were similarly correlated to feelings of failure, the survey found.

The struggles of young men are generating growing alarm among academics, pundits and billionaires. They warn that men are lagging in education and employment, gambling with their financial health on sports or event betting platforms and facing mental health crises.

At the same time, the line between gambling and investing has been blurred. Stock volumes from retail investors have doubled over the past 15 years, and day traders have driven record options volume. Now platforms like Robinhood Markets Inc. and Interactive Brokers Group are trying to capitalize on interest from Gen Z by also offering event-betting alongside stock-trading.

Some research suggests young people have embraced risky financial behaviors to try to generate returns in a world where homeownership and other markers of financial success are out of reach. Eighty percent of Gen Z investors said they'd invested or considered investing in stocks, options, crypto or prediction markets because they feel financially behind and see these investments as better tools to meet their financial goals, according to a Northwestern Mutual study.

The IFS researchers hypothesized that day trading, gambling, playing fantasy sports and porn use — among other activities — may be both coping mechanisms for dejection, stress and loneliness and also exacerbate them. Young men who engaged in these activities less than daily were about half as likely to report feelings of demoralization.

Overall, 42% of survey respondents said the statement "all in all, I am inclined to think that I am a failure," described them very or somewhat well. This feeling was particularly strong among men without college degrees and those who were neither employed nor in school.

A quarter of participants said they felt lonely all of the time, while 30% expressed feeling that way some of the time.

The study also found disillusionment with the American dream, even as young men fostered high hopes for the future. Seven in ten respondents said that success is more a matter of who you know than ability or hard work, but 84% still said they had ambitious plans for their futures.

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/boomers-gen-xers-scramble-assumptions-155828190.html

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