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1. History of S&P 500 After WTI Crude +5% 2 Days

Here’s what you’re looking at:
The blue line on the left is the S&P 500 price and red dots signify days when WTI Crude Oil was up at least 5% for two days in a row.
We are getting this signal today.
The table on the right breaks down forward returns for the S&P 500 after these large moves in WTI Crude

I took out overlapping instances in the table on the right so the data isn’t skewed.

The median S&P 500 rally 12-months after two consecutive days of 5% Crude spikes is 22.7%.
The win ratio is 83%.
I never would have guessed that, but the data is the data.

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2. Crude Oil and Gasoline 2026 Increases

Propelling the move in Energy has been the gains in Crude Oil (+24% YTD) and Gasoline (+38% YTD), which were rising well in advance of the US strikes on Iran. 

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3. Europe Spike Higher than U.S.

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4. Strait of Hormuz Chart

Jack Ablin Cresset- Oil is the immediate transmission mechanism. Prices have already spiked on supply disruption fears, and analysts are warning of a range spanning between $75 to $100+ per barrel depending on conflict trajectory, with extreme escalation scenarios projecting $108–$140 if the Strait of Hormuz is indefinitely closed or blockaded. The Strait is a logistical chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows.

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5. Equal Weight Record Inflows vs. Mag 7 Record Outflows

RSP vs. MAGS. Equal-weight stocks ($RSP) saw a record $5.9bn inflow in February. Meanwhile, the Magnificent 7 ($MAGS) saw record outflow.

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6. SMH Semi ETF Hanging at 50-day….Still Has Not Hit -10% Correction

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7. South Korea Still Up +30% 2026 After Sell Off

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8. Epstein Club Net Worth

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10. Popular (and good) -Seth’s Blog

Popular is easy to measure. Good, not so much.

Setting out to make something popular requires only a focus on the crowd and on the moment. Most pop music is popular simply because that’s what it was built to do.

Good work can be good without being popular. And so the two goals aren’t easily aligned.

It helps to begin by becoming comfortable with what good feels like to you. Because conflating it with popular is a trap.

https://seths.blog/2026/03/popular-and-good/

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Disclosure

Indices that may be included herein are unmanaged indices and one cannot directly invest in an index. Index returns do not reflect the impact of any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. The index information included herein is for illustrative purposes only.

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