TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 09, 2026

1. Over 60% of Kalshi Bets Long Shots

Longshots Losing 98% of Time Dominate Kalshi, Polymarket Trading

Prediction markets tout themselves as “truth machines,” but trading data shows a lot of casino-like bets.

By Carolyn Silverman and Denitsa Tsekova

Pore through the reams of bets made on Polymarket and Kalshi and a clear pattern emerges: bettors flocking again and again to money-losing longshot wagers.

To this crowd, the sites aren’t the truth machines that their billionaire founders claim, converting millions of carefully considered wagers into precise forecasts of real-world events that will, in turn, inform decision-making by businesses and investors across the globe. No, for many customers, these markets look more like a casino crossed with an arcade, open 24/7 and capable of serving up a never-ending buffet of nearly impossible bets that maximize the dopamine rush even as they minimize the financial returns.

Bloomberg

2. S&P Current Allocation

3. Just 4 Stocks=Half of S&P 2026 Performance

Barrons

4. Another Cancelled IPO—NVDA Backed Data Center

Dave Lutz Jones Trading The sudden plunge in demand for an Nvidia-backed data center company’s initial public offering is revealing fresh cracks in the AI funding boom.  The planned $5.5 billion listing by Australia’s Firmus Grid has become shrouded in uncertainty after the deal failed to attract adequate support for the A$11 marketed share price

Some investors turned cautious just days after the company said it received indications of interest well above the offer size, putting it on track for a $30 billion valuation, the people said. While Firmus closed order books on Thursday, it has so far given no clear indication of the price or the deal structure, an unusual communication gap that’s fueling speculation the price may be cut or the IPO scrapped altogether.

5. High Yield Bond ETF Approached April Lows…Straight Down September

Stockcharts

6. Some Popular Theme ETFs Big Drawdowns….REMX Rare Earth ETF -45%

Stockcharts

7. Theme ETF….UFO Space ETF Tops on SPCX IPO Day….-37%

Stockcharts

8. Theme ETF….XAR Aerospace and Defense Big Topping Pattern….50 day thru 200 day to downside

Stockcharts

9. India Heading Back to 2023 Levels

Stockcharts

10. Very Few American Interested in Buying a Home at These Rates

Mortgage demand. “Very, very few households we just surveyed are interested in buying a home at 7.5% mortgage rates. Only time will tell if/when this housing logjam starts to break.”

Rick Palacios

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