Topley’s Top Ten – August 12th, 2019

Author

Matt Topley
August 12, 2019

1.Bond Volatility Grid.

https://www.blackrockblog.com/2019/07/30/whats-driving-the-muni-rally/

2.Will 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield Break to New Lows?  30 Year Bonds Return 8.4% in 10 Days.

40 year chart 30 year bond yield

3.U.S. 10 Year Highest Sharpe Ratio in 20 Years.

4.China 2nd Qt. GDP Slowest Growth in 27 Years.

The U.S. can claim a kind of victory because the latest tradedata show that China is faring far worse from the trade slowdown. China’ssecond-quarter GDP grew at its slowest rate in at least 27 years. Chineseexports to the U.S. fell by $5.6 billion in June, versus a $1.8 billion dropfor U.S. exports to China. (Mexico just surpassed China as the top tradingpartner with the U.S.)

Stock Picks for Investors to Playthe Trade War’s Scary Next Phase By Avi Salzman

5.Kospi South Korean Composite-Many Investors View As Measure of Global Trade

Breaks to new 3 year lows…50day thru 200day to downside.

6.Difference in Sector Weightings U.S. Vs. Non-U.S.

7.Lithium Prices 1/3 Off Highs.

Historically,Lithium reached an all time high of 157.11 in February of 2011 and a record lowof 62.79 in February of 2016.

Lithium ETF-40+ Off Highs.

Big projections of growth dominated research reports on electric vehicles.

8.GCC Increasing Debt Offerings…GCC Countries–Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman.

Gulf Cooperation CouncilINTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONThe Editors of Encyclopaedia BritannicaAlternative Titles: GCC, Gulf States

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), political andeconomic alliance of six Middle Eastern countries—SaudiArabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain,and Oman. The GCC was established in Riyadh,Saudi Arabia, in May 1981. The purpose of the GCC is to achieve unity among itsmembers based on their common objectives and their similar political andcultural identities, which are rooted in Arab and Islamic cultures. Presidency of the council rotatesannually.

Arguably the most important article of theGCC charter is Article 4, which states that the alliance was formed tostrengthen relations among its member countries and to promote cooperationamong the countries’ citizens. The GCC also has a defense planning council thatcoordinates military cooperation between member countries. The highestdecision-making entity of the GCC is the Supreme Council, which meets on anannual basis and consists of GCC heads of state. Decisions of the SupremeCouncil are adopted by unanimous approval. The Ministerial Council, made up offoreign ministers or other government officials, meets every three monthsto implement the decisions of the SupremeCouncil and to propose new policy. The administrative arm of the alliance isthe office of the Secretariat-General, which monitors policy implementation andarranges meetings.

GCC COUNTRIES KEEN TO TAP GROWING DEMAND FOR BONDS

In the past,sovereigns from the Gulf Co-operation Council (UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia,Bahrain and Oman) rarely needed to issue debt. However, the fall in oil pricesand the need to fund their budget deficits has prompted these issuers to borrowin the international bond markets. The scale of this trend is clear as outlinedin Figure 1: a quarter of all USD-denominated emerging market sovereign debtwas issued by the GCC last year. Up until 2014, Bahrain used to be the sole GCCissuer of international debt.

9.The Coast Guard’s newest cutter busted 2,100 pounds of cocaine before it even got to home port for the first time

Christopher WoodyAug. 9, 2019, 12:16 PM

US CoastGuard cutter Midgett crew members seized morethan 2,100 pounds of cocaine from a low-profile go-fast vessel interdicted ininternational waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean, July 26, 2019. US Coast Guard

  • Navydestroyer Michael Murphy and Coast Guard cutter Midgett teamed up to bust 2,100pounds of cocaine in the eastern Pacific Ocean in July.

  • TheCoast Guard has been hauling in record amounts of cocaine, and this was likelythe first of many such busts for the Midgett.

In July,yet-to-be-commissioned Coast Guard cutter Midgett passed through the PanamaCanal and started a roughly 5,000-mile trip to Honolulu.

The Coast Guard acceptedthe Midgett in April, and it didn’t leave the Mississippi shipyard where it wasbuilt until June 11. But the newest national-security cutter was ready as ittransited the eastern Pacific, and with good reason — the ship helped interceptmore than 2,100 pounds of cocaine before it even made it to its home port.

On July 25, a MH-60R SeaHawk helicopter from the US Navy destroyer Michael Murphy spotted a low-profilego-fast boat — a kind of vessel often called a “ narco sub.”

Some 80% of the cocaine smuggled to North America comesthrough the eastern Pacific, often in narco subs — sometimes true submarines or semi-submersibles, but usually low-profilevessels, of which the service has seen a recent resurgence.

As the helicopterapproached, a hatch on top of the go-fast boat opened, and, the Navy said, three passengers began tossing objects in the water. Thedestroyer’s interceptor boat, guided by the helicopter, picked up the objects andpulled alongside, telling the suspects to remain in sight.

10.A Healthy Heart Keeps the Brain Sharp

New research shows a wholesomelifestyle can prevent cognitive decline

Credit:Cavan Images/Getty Images

eRevealing just how connected theheart and mind are, a new study finds poor health at age 50 — on measures likephysical activity, diet, and blood pressure — is linked to more than double therisk of dementia decades later. The result builds on other research showingthat healthy living as early as age 18 affects brainpower later in life.

Dementia is a generalterm referring to impaired thinking, memory, anddecision-making. Alzheimer’s disease is the most common type. There is no knowncure.

“It is now widely acceptedthat dementia involves changes in the brain over the course of 15 to 20 years,”explains Archana Singh-Manoux of the University of Paris-Saclay in France, whoconducted the new research with colleague Séverine Sabia. “Therefore, it isimportant to assess risk factors before the beginning of the disease process.”

The study,published August 7 in the journal BMJ, examined existing dataon 7,899 British women and men who were 35 to 55 at the start of the 25-yearstudy. Each person was given a cardiovascular health rating at the outset —poor, intermediate, or optimal — based on seven measures linked to hearthealth: smoking, diet, physical activity, body mass index, blood sugar,blood cholesterol, and blood pressure. Dementia cases were determinedbased on subsequent medical records and death registers. In all, 347 cases ofdementia were recorded. The rate of dementia was more than double among thosewith poor initial heart health scores compared to those with optimal scores.

The implications from thisstudy and many others are that the healthier the vascular system is in midlife,the lower the risk of subsequent dementia.

“The thrust of much of theresearch in dementia is on curative solutions,” Singh-Manoux says in an email.“The failure of all drug trials so far makes it important to considerprevention. For prevention to be effective we need to accept the long course ofdementia.”

“The implications from thisstudy and many others are that the healthier the vascular system is in midlife,the lower the risk of subsequent dementia,” Carol Brayne of the University ofCambridge and Fiona Matthews of the University of Newcastle write in anaccompanying BMJ editorial.

Other research suggests theearlier that one adopts a healthy lifestyle, the better it is for the brain.

Scientists looked at data on3,381 U.S. residents who were between 18 to 30 at the start of a long-termresearch project. 25 years later, the subjects took tests measuring memory,thinking speed, and mental flexibility. Those who started with higher thanrecommended levels of blood pressure, blood sugar, and cholesterol scoredsignificantly lower on the cognitive tests in their forties and fifties, theresearchers reported in Circulation in2014.

“It’s amazing that as ayoung adult, mildly elevated cardiovascular risks seem to matter for your brainhealth later in life,” said study team member Kristine Yaffe, aneuropsychiatrist and professor at the University of California-San Francisco.“We’re not talking about old age issues, but lifelong issues.”

Several other studies havelinked specific health issues to dementia.

A 2017 study in JAMA Neurology, involving15,744 people in the United States over 25 years, found high blood pressure(defined as 140/90 or higher the time) linked to a 39% higher risk of dementialater on, while even slightly elevated blood pressure (120/80 or higher) waslinked to a 31% higher risk of dementia.

In another study, researchers reviewed data on morethan 1 million people across 38 years to find a 16% to 33% difference indementia risk among those who were overweight versus normal weight, and anadditional similar percentage increase among the obese.

Early-onset dementia, beforethe age of 65, is linked to chronic heavy drinking (4 or more daily drinks formen, three for women) in 57% of cases, researchers revealed last year in Lancet PublicHealth. “Alcohol-induced brain damage and dementia are preventable,” saysstudy team member Jürgen Rehm.

Some 50 million peoplearound the world have dementia, according to the World Health Organization, andeach year 10 million more are afflicted. By 2050, the percentage of the elderlyis projected to double, and dementia is expected tobe one of several factors that strain society and its care systems.

“While age is the strongestknown risk factor for cognitive decline, dementia is not a natural orinevitable consequence of aging,” WHO states in an overview of the problem.

What can you do?Studies suggest a plant-based diet rich in fruitsand vegetables is best for the body and mind. Experts recommend avoiding white flour, white rice,added sugar, and highly processed foods. WHO advises limitingalcohol consumption and not smoking.

Physical activity, even just walking, has been shown to be good forthe brain. In one study earlier this year, people who were notexercising were split into two groups: One did moderate aerobic exercise fourtimes a week; the other did just stretching. After six months, they all took atest, and those who’d exercised tested as if they were several years youngercognitively. Also, the outer layers of the brains of the exercise groupthickened, a sign of improved brain function.

As with other research, thenew study does not prove that poor heart health causes dementia, but it showsthat avoiding the known risks early in life helps stave off dementia later in life.

Your life, sourced by science. Anew Medium publication about health and wellness.

WRITTEN BYRobert Roy Britt

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Explainerof things, former editor-in-chief of Live Science and Space .com, author of thescience thriller “5 Days to Landfall.”

Found at Abnormal Returns  www.abnormalreturns.com