Topley’s Top Ten – August 26, 2019

Author

Matt Topley
August 26, 2019

1.NFL Games Make Up 60% of the Top 100 Most Watched Telecasts in a Typical Year.

In the U.S., the NFL rules sports—and television. Its games makeup 60% of the top 100 most-watched telecasts in a typical year, and over 70% inyears when there are no Olympic Games.

Football Season Is Here and It’s aKey Moment for the Future of TV

2.Berkshire Hathaway 2 Years Sideways.

BRK/A chart 2 yearrange

3.Buffett’s Battery Bet

BYDDF-New Lows For Buffett’s battery company BYD

4.40 Weeks in a Row of Net Withdrawls from Loan Funds.

But retail investors bail out.

Loan mutual funds and loan ETFs used to be popular – especiallywith retail investors. Leveraged loans normally have floating rates. Forexample, Ancestry’s loan was issued at a rate of Libor plus 425 basis points.In a rising interest-rate environment, such as 2018, the interest rate on thoseloans adjusts, and so the yield rises, but the price of the loan remainsroughly stable. Bonds on the other hand experience falling prices as yieldsrise.

But the market got the jitters late last year. Leveraged loans arenotoriously slow to sell, creating a potentially treacherous liquidity mismatchin a fund that allows for daily withdrawals. Fear of the liquidity mismatch,and the potential for a run on the fund, caused investors to try to get out thedoor first.

And this year, markets figured that interest rates would fall,instead of rise, and more investors withdrew their money from loan funds,leading to 40 weeks in a row of net withdrawals, now totaling about $36 billion(data via LCD, citing Lipper):

Suddenly Leveraged Loan Issuance Gets Rough

by Wolf Richter • Aug 22,2019 • 62 Comments • Email to a friend

5.Vietnam Increasing Exports to U.S. But Still Small Compared to China.

By 

companies are rushing to seek alternative bases, only tofind even promising countries like Vietnam don’t match up

6.54% of Amazon Paid Units Were Sold by Third-Party Sellers…”Death by Amazon” Offset by “Alive by Amazon”….3/4 of third-party sellers 1-5 employees.

7.The Fed is Buying Treasuries for the First Time Since 2014

Summary

  • Federal Reserve holdings of Treasury’s has risen for the firsttime since QE ended in 2014.

  • Quantitative Tightening is over, but is outright QE back???

  • Ongoing “direct monetization” continues, withun-matched declines in Excess Reserves versus Fed held Treasury’s and MBS.

Interesting that this week, forthe first time since QE ended way back in late 2014, Federal Reserve holdingsof Treasury bonds rose (yellow columns, below).  The $8 billionincrease is the first seen since QE ended almost 5 years ago and comes after QT(quantitative tightening) had been decelerating since mid 2019.  However,the outright increase in Treasury holdings is still a bit of shocker.  Can’tsay if this was a one off… but this deserves a bit more attention.

So what exactly was the Fedbuying?  Seven to ten year Treasury’s!  The chart below shows theFed’s mid duration holdings (red line) and the weekly change in those holdings(blue columns).  The purchasing this week wasonly bested by a single week in 2011…when the Fed was feverishly running itsQE program?!?

8.Picture of Zero Interest Rate Debt Worldwide.

A J-Hole Surprise… QE Is Back!

9.The Law Trump Quoted in Relation to American Companies in China.

International Emergency Economic Powers Act

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The International EmergencyEconomic Powers Act (IEEPA), Title II of Pub.L. 95–223,91 Stat. 1626,enacted October 28, 1977, is a United Statesfederal law authorizing the president toregulate international commerce after declaring a national emergency inresponse to any unusual and extraordinary threat to the United States which hasits source in whole or substantial part outside the United States.[1]

The H.R. 7738 legislation was signed by President Jimmy Carter on December 28, 1977.[2]

In the United States Code,the IEEPA is Title 50, §§1701–1707.[3] The IEEPA authorizes the president to declare theexistence of an “unusual and extraordinary threat… to the nationalsecurity, foreign policy, or economy of the United States” that originates“in whole or substantial part outside the United States.”[4] It further authorizes the president, after such adeclaration, to block transactions and freeze assets to deal with the threat.[5] In the event of an actual attack on the UnitedStates, the president can also confiscate property connected with a country,group, or person that aided in the attack.[6]

The IEEPA falls under the provisions ofthe NationalEmergencies Act (NEA), which means that an emergency declared underthe act must be renewed annually to remain in effect.

History[edit]

Curtailmentof emergency executive powers[edit]

Congress enacted the IEEPA in 1977 toclarify and restrict presidential power during times of declared nationalemergency under the Tradingwith the Enemy Act of 1917 (“TWEA”). Under TWEA,starting with Franklin D. Roosevelt in1933, presidents had the power to declare emergencies without limiting theirscope or duration, without citing the relevant statutes, and withoutcongressional oversight.[7] The Supreme Court in YoungstownSheet & Tube Co. v. Sawyer limited what a presidentcould do in such an emergency, but did not limit the emergency declarationpower itself. A 1973 Senate investigation found (in Senate Report 93-549)that four declared emergencies remained in effect: the 1933 banking crisis withrespect to the hoarding of gold,[8]a 1950 emergency with respect to the Korean War,[9] a 1970 emergency regarding the postal workersstrike, and a 1971 emergency in response to the government’s deterioratingeconomic and fiscal conditions.[10] Congress terminated these emergencies withthe NationalEmergencies Act, and then passed the IEEPA to restore the emergencypower in a limited, overseeable form.

Unlike TWEA, IEEPA was drafted to permitpresidential emergency declarations only in response to threats originatingoutside the United States.[11] Beginning with Jimmy Carter in response to the Iran Hostage Crisis,presidents have invoked IEEPA to safeguard U.S. national security interests byfreezing or “blocking” assets of belligerent foreign governments,[12] or certain foreign nationals abroad.[13]

10.14 Ways to Commit to Lifelong Learning

By YEC | August13, 2019 | 0 

Learning is a lifelong process, especiallywhen you’re an entrepreneur. As society and technology evolve, it’s importantto keep on top of the latest trends and best practices so that you, and yourbusiness, can keep growing.

You can pursue advanced degreesor formal continuing education classes, but sometimes this isn’t feasible.Fortunately, there are plenty of opportunities for informal learning that don’tinvolve going back to school.

We asked members ofthe YoungEntrepreneur Council how they’ve committed to lifelong learningoutside of the traditional classroom setting. Here’s what they advise:

1. Travel.

There is no better way tograsp new ideas and educate yourself than to be in new places, meeting newpeople and experiencing new cultures. Traveling may not give you book smarts,but it will give you an education you can’t get in a classroom.

It is important to stepoutside of your comfort zone and try things you maybe would not normally try.It could be reading a book on a topic you might not normally gravitate to,eating a cuisine you would normally never try or seeing a concert of a genre ofmusic you have never been into. Exposing yourself to the world outside ofyour bubble is a great way to continue to grow and learn.

Teaching others alsoteaches you something. It is the best test of your own knowledge. Whomever youare teaching or mentoring will have questions. This will force you to thinkcritically and offer thoughtful answers. It will also create discussions that willtap into areas you may not have even thought about yet.

4. Keep in touch with mentors.

Every business owner has acouple of mentors they relied on when they first started their business.There’s a good chance that they have a lot of knowledge to share, and justbecause you’ve managed to create a successful business, that doesn’t mean thatyou’ve learned everything they have to offer. Keep in touch with the people whohelped you get started.

5. Listen to podcasts.

Lifelong learning is theonly way to stay on top of the curve. However, it’s really difficult forentrepreneurs to squeeze in at least an hour a week to gain some knowledge. Idiscovered podcasts a few years ago and it’s been a game-changer for me. Ilisten to them in traffic, or when I do some physical tasks that don’t requiremental concentration, like running or working out.

6. Read blogs.

Reading industry-relatedblogs is a great way to practice lifelong learning. Because blog posts areshorter, in comparison to books, you can learn a lot in a short amount of time.I make sure to read at least a couple a day to get inspired, improve my ownwriting skills and learn new things.

Having other people aroundwho are working toward similar or the same goals can help you grow. Thesemembers and friends keep you accountable, and you do the same for them. Meetingregularly builds the habit and commitment. In addition to building lifelongskills, from public speaking to writing to studying, you will gain lifelongfriends.

8. Watch lectures on YouTube.

YouTube is full ofprofessors giving educational lectures for everyone to see. If you want tolearn more while not sitting in a classroom, consider taking the time to listento a lecture on a subject you’re passionate about while on lunch. Even thoughyou’re not in a class, you still get the benefits of having a student mentality.

9. Keep asking questions.

It’s so important to stay curious about life so that it nevergets dull or boring. If you stay inquisitive about all there is to know, it’llencourage you to keep learning new things, perhaps even things you neverthought you could do. Encourage yourself to ask questions about anything andeverything you’re curious about to keep your brain engaged and healthy.

10. Watch documentaries.

An easy and entertainingway to practice lifelong learning is to watch documentaries. There are tons ofawesome documentaries out there and it’s a great way to learn more about theworld. I think it’s important to learn about a wide array of topics, not justones that are related to your business. You never know what you’ll learn in adocumentary that could inspire your next great idea.

The most important thing Iever got out of my education was a passion for reading. It’s because of thisthat I’ve been able to continue learning and growing long after finishing mydegree. If you want to ensure that you’re informed about the latestdevelopments in your field and that you’re always improving your mentalcapabilities, make it a habit to read everything you can get your hands on.

12. Take online classes.

I love the convenience ofonline courses that I can start and stop and then start again whenever I have afree half hour. It’s a productive way for me to unwind after working orsomething to do when I’m stuck somewhere, like at an airport or on a plane.

13. Listen to audiobooks.

Audiobooks are a superconvenient way to keep learning new things on a daily basis. Whether it’s onyour daily commute, while eating lunch or even during simpler tasks at work,it’s an easy way to consume new material and maintain your edge. I personallytake a 30-minute walk every day after lunch just to make sure I get my “reading”in.

14. Hang around curious minds.

It is said that “smallminds discuss people, average minds discuss events and great minds discussideas.” If you want to be successful and a lifelong learner, it would be wiseto hang around other curious people. What do your peers talk about when you’retogether? Do they discuss deep topics and ideas or pointless, feel-good socialgossip?

These answers are providedby Young Entrepreneur Council (YEC), an invite-only organization comprised ofthe world’s most successful young entrepreneurs. YEC members represent nearlyevery industry, generate billions of dollars in revenue each year and havecreated tens of thousands of jobs. Learn more at yec.co