Topley’s Top Ten – February 19, 2020

Author

Matt Topley
February 19, 2020

1.S&P Forward P/E Multiples Nothing Like 1999 Bubble.

Intel and Cisco Never Made It Back to 1999 Highs.

2.The Share of the U.S. Population Holding Stocks Has Never Recovered.

A shrinking share of thepopulation has benefited directly from the rise in the S&P500 since 2009,see chart below and here.

———————————————–

Let us know if you would liketo add a colleague to this distribution list.

Torsten Sløk, Ph.D.Chief Economist

3. Note the Short interest on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has begun this year at levels not seen since 2007

Note the Short interest on the SPDRS&P 500 ETF Trust has begun this year at levels not seen since 2007

4.Tech Supply Chains Most Disrupted by Coronavirus

Zerohedge

To summarize, here are the sectors more at riskfrom a continued crunch across Chinese factories: However, analyzing granularinternational trade data from the Census Bureau, Goldman finds that nearlya third of Chinese products arrive by air (by value, including over 75% oftelecom hardware), with these goods representing 3.6% of US retail sales andjust under 1% of personal consumption expenditures. Thecomposition of these products (and their wholesale value) are shown in the leftpanel of the chart below, and represent the sector most likely to be impactedas China remains paralyzed. Unsurprisingly, airfreight imports are skewedtowards high-value, light-weight products such as smartphones, laptops, andconsumer electronics, representing a perfect storm for a company such as Applewhich is reliant on all three. Additionally, a significant share of apparel andfootwear (10%) also arrives from China by plane.

5.Producer Countries Break-Even

“The cuts in capitalspending that are occurring right now in the oil and gas industry areincredibly severe,” notes Mike. “The industry is now acting in a massive way tocorrect the supply. And this is big stuff, because if you go back to 2014 some25% of all capital spending in the United States was oil-industry spending.”

6.The U.S. Oil and Gas Rig Count Drop

7.Commodity Index Holds Its Lows.

CRB-Jefferies Commodity Index has not broken to new lows on Coronavirus yet.

8.Stanford scientist: 12 tiny habits that will instantly make you more productive

Published Mon, Feb 17 20209:01 AM EST

If you have a hard time keeping and maintaining goodhabits, you may be thinking “too big,” according to a Stanford Universitybehavior scientist, who has been studying how habits are kept for nearly threedecades.

The key to success, he says, is to think small whenwanting to develop new behaviors or routines.

“Tiny is mighty,” BJ Fogg, Ph.D., who founded StanfordUniversity’s Behavior Design Lab tells CNBC Make it.

Since 1998, Fogg has been conducting studies andrunning the Behavior Design Lab to figure out how habits are formed and, moreimportantly, how to make them stick. He has also privately coached more than40,000 people for his research.

“It’s all about baby steps,” says Fogg, author of thenew book, “Tiny Habits: The Small Changes that Change Everything.

Fogg says he found that most people aim too high andbig when trying to form a new habit — which often leads to them to fail. Forinstance, if you have a goal of drinking a gallon of water a day, the key is tostart with having a sip after you wake up in the morning, says Fogg. By takingtiny steps to start, Fogg found that people are more likely to keep that habitbecause the new behaviors don’t require a lot of motivation at first. Andthere’s no need to create an elaborate plan or rally social support. It’s alsosafe to experiment with because if you don’t succeed, the “misstep is tiny.”

Additionally, he thinks it crucial to start a newbehavior following something that is already a staple in your routine (likebrushing your teeth).

“Every behavior needs a prompt to occur. Your existingroutine can serve a prompt in a powerful and elegant way,” Fogg says.

Lastly, to make something stick permanently, itsimportant to celebrate after completing the habit.

“Give yourself a fist bump,” Foggs says. Bycongratulating yourself after completing the habit, you will be more likely torepeat it, according to Fogg’s research.

Fogg says you’ll eventually “do more of the habits intime that you hadn’t planned and you’ll also be less fearful to try to attemptother changes.”

The habits people want to make part of their routinethe most are around productivity, according to a recent study conducted byFogg’s team. Productivity beat the desire for habits that have to do with beingfinancially secure and losing weight.

A good small habit for productivity, says Fogg, isputting your phone on do not disturb mode as soon as you sit down at your desk.When the habit takes hold, it will have a ripple effect and eventually boostyour productivity, he says. That’s because doing small habits, you’ll “be lessfearful to try to attempt other changes.”

“When you go tiny, you don’t need to rely on willpoweror motivation,′ Fogg writes. “Tiny will grow bigger, just like a seed grows intoa tree.”

12tiny habits that help with people with productivity, according to Fogg’sresearch

Fogg suggests saying these habits to yourselfthroughout the day. Each habit is connected with an anchor or prompt to helpyou remember to complete it.

1. After I sit down at my desk, I will put my phone ondo not disturb mode.

2. After I close my office door, I will organize oneitem that’s lying around.

3. After I finish reading e-mail, I will close thee-mail browser tab.

4. After I launch a new Word doc, I will hide allother programs running on my computer.

5. After I find myself mindlessly browsing socialmedia, I will log out.

6. After I sit down at a meeting, I will write thetitle, the date, and the attendees at the top of my notes.

7. After I notice a call going on for longer thanexpected, I’ll say this: “It’s been great to talk, but I need to wrap up. Whathaven’t we covered yet that’s important?”

8. After I read an important e-mail, I will file it ina folder for the designated project.

9. After I read an e-mail I can’t deal withimmediately, I will mark it as unread.

10. After I read an e-mail that’s time-sensitive, Iwill reply with this script: “Got it. I will review it in detail and get backin touch soon.”

11. After I leave the office, I will think about oncesuccess from the day.

12. After I walk in the door at home, I will hang mykeys on the hook.