Topley’s Top Ten – January 13, 2020

Author

Matt Topley
January 13, 2020

1.Sector Valuations vs. Historical.

Bespoke Investment Group

We continue to see elevated P/E ratios.  The S&P’s trailing 12-month P/E is currently 21.9, while Real Estate is at 49.9, Technology is up to 27.5, and Consumer Discretionary is at 25.3.  The only sector with a P/E ratio below 19 is Financials at 14.5.

Absolute levels of valuations like the chart above don’t tell you much.  The chart below shows where valuations stand for sectors relative to levels seen over the last ten years.  As shown, the S&P 500’s current P/E ratio is higher than 97.9% of all other P/E readings seen for the index over the last ten years.  That’s high!  And three sectors have valuations in the 98th percentile or higher, with Technology at the top at 100%.  Over the last ten years, Tech’s P/E ratio has never been higher. The only sector where valuations are currently “average” compared to the last ten years is Financials.  Sign up for Bespoke Premium and get half off your first three months.  Click here for this special offer.

2. Global Clean Energy ETF vs. Small Cap Oil

ICLN ETF

ICLN Clean Energy ETF +35% vs. PSCE small cap oil stocks -33%

3.Peak Private Equity??

Investorsplowing cash into private assets may recall the words of Wall Street legendBarton Biggs: There’s no asset class that too much money can’t spoil.

One of themost fertile grounds for fundsharvesting returns in a world of negative-yielding bonds and expensive publiccompanies — private equity — is being swamped.

‘Peak’ Private-Equity Fears Are SpreadingAcross Pension WorldSource: Bloomberg

‘Peak’ Private-Equity Fears Are Spreading Across Pension World

Found at Barry Ritholtz The Big Picture https://ritholtz.com/

 

4. U.S. Venture Capital Funding Reaches Dot-Com Era Level

5.Starting Valuations Matter in Private and Venture ….See Image Below 90’s Returns in Venture vs. Early 2000’s

TheStruggle To Cash Out-Venture Capitalists Must Work To Pull Profits FromInvestments

6.$1.6B in Venture Capital Money Flow to Digital Health Just in 3Q 2019

Where Tech Giants Are Betting On Digital Health

CB INSIGHTS

7.Prescription Drug Expenditures in the U.S. 1960-2019

8.CES Consumer Tech Convention Best Products.

The2019 edition of the world’s biggest technology trade show — the ConsumerElectronics Show (CES) — has come and gone. As we look back,there were a few themes that stood out. Televisions were a big hit this year;specifically, both Samsung and LG revealed their visions of the future. Apple also had a huge presence at thisyear’s show without actually being there; it announcedpartnerships with Samsung, LG, Sony and Vizio – smart TVs from those brandswill support HomeKit and AirPlay 2 (and they even trolled Google witha huge billboard about privacy). And, as expected, Google Assistant and Alexasmart assistants were everywhere and integrated into everything.

Still,CES 2019 was all about its vast array of products in all different categories.From headphones to the home theater, smartwatches to hi-fi, cameras to gymaccessories, it was all there. These are the 15 best products worthy of a GearPatrol Award, which we awarded to the best products at the show. Some you canbuy right now; some offer a glimpse into the future.

Portable Power: Anker PowerCore+ 19000 PD Hybrid

ThePowerCore+ 19000 PD is a high-capacity portable power bank that can charge asmartphone or laptop (or both at the same time). The neat thing, however, isthat it also doubles as a USB-C hub that supports high-speed data transfer, soyou can connect all your other devices — USB-C or otherwise — to your MacBookAir or MacBook Pro.

Wireless Headphones: Audio-Technica ATH-ANC900BT

In atrade show that seemed sparse on the headphone front, Audio-Technica noise-cancelingheadphones, which are designed to give Sony’s and Bose’s models a run for theirmoney, definitely stood out. The ATH-ANC900BT’s support Bluetooth 5.0 and havean estimated 35-hour battery life with ANC turned on — which is huge.The other factor: at $300, they are also slightly cheaper than the competition.

Best In Show: LG Signature OLED TV R

There’sno denying it: LG’s beautiful new rollable OLED TV stole the show this year.Not only is it a great space saver, and not only does it deliver LG’sindustry-leading picture quality in a form factor that we’ve never seen before,but it will be available to purchase this year.

Hi-Fi: Cambridge Audio Alva TT Turntable

CambridgeAudio’s newest turntable, the Alva TT, is a modern audiophile’s dream. It’s theworld’s first vinyl player that can stream Bluetooth aptX HD, meaning it canstream 24-bit/48kHz audio to amps, speakers and headphones.

Home Theater: Sennheiser Ambeo Soundbar

The AmbeoSoundbar was announced as a prototype last year, but Sennheiser has polishedthe look, fuction and sound of it — and named a price. It’ll be available thisspring. Essentially, it’s the coolest soundbar we’ve ever seen: a all-in-one5.1.4 sound system that’s able to create its own virtual height channels anddeliver a completely immersive experience.

The 15 Best ProductsWe Saw at CES 2019-JANUARY 21, 2019 TECH By TUCKER BOWE

9. Women outnumber men in the American workforce for only the second time

For just the second time, women outnumbered men in the U.S. paidworkforce, with their new majority buoyed by fast job growth in health care andeducation over the past year, as well as the tight labor market.

At first glance, the shift is tiny and easy to miss: Women worked50.04 percent of payroll jobs in December, up from 49.99 percent the priormonth. But the figure reflects a larger, ongoing trend. Of the 145,000 jobspicked up in December throughout the economy, women won most of them — 139,000,according to Labor Department data.

10.7 Life-Changing Questions to Help You Succeed in 2020 (and Beyond)

by Craig Ballantyne | Jan 6, 2020 | Self-Improvement

In March of 2006, I hired my firstbusiness coach, Tom Venuto. 

And during our first coachingsession, he asked me a simple question that would change my life in ways Inever would have expected.“Craig,” he said, “What do you want yourbusiness to look like in 5 years from now?”

“I want to have a business likeEarly to Rise”, I responded. 

And that response led me down apath to becoming a better speaker, author, coach, trainer, networker,entrepreneur, and ultimately a better person. 

Yes, Tom’s coaching helped me makemillions…

…And yes, his coaching helped meuncover a “cure” for my anxiety. 

But that first question he asked meforced me to declare aloud my dreams and intentions. It got the Universeinvolved (sounds woo-woo but it isn’t!), pushed me to join masterminds, and gotme introduced to Matt Smith (who ultimately introduced me to Mark Ford andallowed me to purchase ETR)

… And if he hadn’t asked thatquestion…

This might not be happening rightnow.

A good question can change thetrajectory of your future and the story of your life. 

As Tony Robbins says, “The qualityof your life is a direct reflection of the quality of questions you askyourself.” 

Realize right now that YOU hold thepen.

And now, it’s time to write downthe answers and create the story you want to live.

1. “What were the best/worstexperiences of 2019? What do I want more or less of in 2020?” 

It’s easy to set big goals. But alltoo often, we let our peers, competitors, and the media push us into settingbig goals that aren’t in integrity with what we truly want. 

We allow comparison to seduce usinto a lifestyle that is inauthentic and out of alignment with our true valuesand vision. 

So today, with 2019 in the rearviewmirror, I challenge you to look back on the year objectively to discover theexperiences, relationships, and pursuits that really fulfilledyou. 

What were the things that happenedin 2019 that set your soul on fire? What experiences do you want more of in2020? And, most importantly, what is really requiredto achieve them? 

For example, let’s say that lastyear you prioritized family time more than ever before. You took epicvacations, you made it to your kid’s sporting events, and connected more deeplywith your spouse. And the result was a feeling of intimacy, closeness, andfulfillment that far outweighed your professional achievements. 

By recognizing this, you canstrategically plan for even more qualitytime and adventures with your family in 2020…even if they come at the expense of making moremoney. 

Now, take another mental step back…

What were your worst experiences of2019? And how can you reduce them in 2020, or eliminate them altogether?

For example, maybe you agreed to alucrative business project that added an extra 20 hours of work to your plateeach week. 

When you think back on it, yourealize that the money you earned from that project paled in comparison to thestress, anxiety, and overwhelm you felt completing it. Knowing this, you canset stricter boundaries in 2020 around the types of projects you will and willnot pursue. 

Or, if you traveled too much andspent too many weeks away from home, set strict rules about the types ofengagements you will and will not travel for. 

For example, maybe you worked waytoo much on menial tasks. Plan to outsource the work that doesn’t require yourspecific skillset. 

By simply taking the time to pauseand reflect on your year, you’ll gain a more objective understanding ofwhat really matters and prioritize your time in 2020accordingly. 

2. “If I had to achieve myten-year goals in the next six months, how would I do it?”

Peter Thiel asks this question,made famous by Tim Ferriss’s book The Tools of Titans, ofevery Founder and CEO who comes to him for funding. 

But here’s the interestingpart. 

Peter doesn’t expect the companiesin question to actually accomplish their10-year goals in six months. Instead, this thought experiment is designed toforce them to challenge their assumptions, identify the inefficiencies, andthink 10X bigger than they are today. 

Right now, I challenge you toanswer this question. 

If you HAD to hit your 10-yeargoals in the next 6 months, gun to your head, how would you do it? 

What strategies would you need tochange? What would you need to STOP doing? Who would you need on your team? Whowould YOU need to become? 

Maybe you’re easily distracted byyour Instagram feed or email notifications or a chatty coworker and you needbetter boundaries to protect your time and attention. 

Maybe you’re working your fingersto the bone on menial tasks and unnecessary errands and you need to hire a newteam member to outsource the busy work and give you the space you need to workinside of your “Area of genius”. 

To help you solidify your answersto this question, I’ve developed a simple tool I use with all of my $25k/daycoaching clients called “The Billionaire Time Matrix.” 

If you’ve never completed thisexercise before, pull out a blank sheet of paper and a pen and take 10-minutesto complete this. 

Draw a box with four quadrants, andwrite these questions in each of the quadrants.

What do I hate doing?

What is NOT my job?

What should I stop doing?

What are my distractions?

Be brutally honest with yourselfhere and leave nothing out.

Once you’re done with thisexercise, analyze the items on this list and identify the #1 action step youmust take today to get closer to yourultimate vision. 

Once you’ve successfully delegated,eliminated, or automated all the things that are killing your time, you’ll havefreed up 10-15 hours each week and brought yourself 10X closer to hitting yourbig goals. 

3. “If money were no object,how would I spend my time? What would I do differently than I’m doing rightnow?”

All too often, we defer doing thethings we really want to do until we hit a certain level of financialsuccess. 

But here’s the thing… 

Most of the things you REALLY wantto do (spend more time with family/friends, travel more, learn a new language,instrument, etc.) are all readily available NOW, regardless of your financiallevel. 

So ask yourself… What are a fewthings you’ve been delaying until you hit that magic number? What are thethings you would do if money weren’t a concern?

The next step is simple. 

Prioritize those things in2020. 

Stop putting off the things youwant until you can “find” the time. Make the time. 

The more energy you pour intoyourself…your hobbies, passions, and relationships…the more energy you have topour into your professional and financial ambitions. 

Don’t believe the hype that themost successful people in the world grind 24/7. They don’t. 

The legendary Magic Johnson spendsweekends at his house in Laguna Beach and travels to Europe every year. Myfriend Bedros Keullian never misses date night with his wife. Jack Dorseydedicates each Saturday to unplugging from his devices and hiking.

Identify the hobbies and activitiesthat restore your soul and do more of them.  

Every area of your life will bebetter when you do. 

4. “What problems am I facingin my life that I can spend money to solve?” 

There’s an old saying, “What gotyou here won’t get you there.” 

And it’s true. 

What gets most entrepreneurs to the“promised land” of 6 or 7-figure success is simple. They work hard for longhours every single day. 

And for a while, this winningstrategy works. But once you reach a certain level of success, you’ll find thatthis winning strategy is the reason you’re starting to lose. 

Because the simple truth is thatyou can’t do it all alone. And more importantly…there’s no reason to. Youdon’t need to suffer in silence and break your backevery day to hit your big goals. 

So ask yourself…what are theproblems in your life that you can spend money to solve? 

Who or what do you need in yourcorner to simplify your life and eliminate problems? 

Are you working too many hours?Buyback your time by hiring an assistant or a commission-based sales rep tofree up your schedule.

Are you struggling with your weightand energy level? Invest in a personal trainer or meal delivery service. 

Are you unable to keep your houseorganized? Spend $100 a week to hire a housekeeper. 

Do you waste hours each weekwaiting for software or websites to load? Fork out $2,000 to upgrade yourlaptop and router. 

You get the picture. 

Money doesn’t solve everything, butit solves a lot of things. 

And in my experience, the money Ispend to buy back my time is always aninvestment that yields disproportionate results in the long run. 

5. “What if nothing was wrong?”

It’s easy to look at other people’ssuccess and imagine that, because we aren’t at their level, we’re doingsomething wrong. 

But what if everything was exactlyas it was supposed to be? What if there isn’t anything wrong with where you areright now, and you simply need to be patient, trust the process, and continueinvesting in yourself and your growth? 

Listen… 

There is always room forimprovement. And no matter how many proverbial peaks you reach or how muchsuccess you achieve, there will always be things in your life with which youare dissatisfied. 

But catastrophizing this room forimprovement (e.g. “I’m only exercising 3 days a week instead of 5…I’m such alazy horrible person!) does nothing to move the needle forward in yourlife. 

The truth is you have more than99.99% of human beings that have ever existed. You have a roof over your head,food on the table, and at least one person who loves you. 

And the fact that you aren’t whereyou want to be (which is a target that is always out ofreach) doesn’t mean there’s some fatal flaw with who you are as a person. 

So take a deep break and relax.Everything is going to be ok and the problems you are facing are likely muchless serious than you imagine. 

6. “What activities andobligations account for 80% of my stress? How can I eliminate them to increasemy performance and happiness in the New Year?” 

Most entrepreneurs I know couldeliminate 90% of their stress, anxiety, and overwhelm by making 2-3 smallshifts in their life and business. 

Firing on bad client or crappyemployee. Paying someone else to write the articles and emails that eat up anentire day of productive time. Eliminating the most frustrating service fromtheir offer. Setting boundaries around a toxic family relationship that leavesyou feeling drained and exhausted. 

Ask yourself right now… 

What are the 2-3 things in my lifeor business that cause 80% (or more) of my stress and anxiety? 

And how can you eliminate (orsignificantly reduce) them in 2020? 

Even if it means losing money inthe short term, never underestimate the hidden cost of chronic stress andanxiety. 

Sure, you might lose $3,000 inmonthly revenue by firing the client who takes up too much of your time andmakes unreasonable demands from you and your company. But the peace of mind andextra time are worth the cost. 

Yes, it might be uncomfortable tofire the underperforming employee who’s been with your organization for fiveyears…but doing so will reduce your stress and give your ex-employee the opportunity to finda position for which they’re better suited. 

Realize that the world we live inis abundant. There are more opportunities and options than ever before andthere’s no need to suffer through months or years of unnecessary stress andanxiety. 

And it’s only by eliminating thebad and even the “good” that you open up room in your life for the“great.” 

7. “What really matters duringthis season of my life?” 

A few years ago, I spoke to a largegroup at an Entrepreneurship Camp in Lithuania about the importance of creatinga vivid vision for your life. After the session, I chatted with a young mannamed Steve.

He wanted to do it all. He wantedto exercise, he wanted to write, and he wanted to spend time with his girlfriend.He asked me a question many of you have likely posed to yourself: “How do Iknow what to focus on in life?”

The truth is the same for Steve asit is for you…You’ve got to figure out your season of life and give all you’vegot to that area.

Maybe you’re in the season whereyou’ve had success with your business, your kids are grown, and now, it’s timeto shift your priorities to focus on recovery and improving your health. 

Or if you’ve got young kids athome, it’s the season to focus on them as much as possible, making sure you getwork done in time to be home for dance recitals or basketball games. Duringthis season, you’ve got to be sure you aren’t wearing yourself thin so that youcan be at your best when you’re with your family.

You might be in the season of lifewhere you’re young, unencumbered, and don’t have as many obligations in yourpersonal life. As such, you can give more time, energy, and attention tobuilding wealth, knowing that it will one day serve as the foundation uponwhich your family and dream life will be built. 

Whatever season you’re in,you must gain clarity on your values and vision anddetermine what’s truly important right now. 

By doing so, you will simplify yourdecision making, gain clarity on your goals, and start taking the right actions to get you where you want tobe. 

Happy New Year! 

If you want to double yourincome, work less, and become the ambitious millionaire you’ve always wanted tobe… Craig Ballantyne is the coach who will help you do it. With more than20-years of experience as an entrepreneur and five 7-figure businesses underhis belt, he specializes in helping “struckling” entrepreneurs getout of the mud and build the business of their dreams. To see if you qualifyfor Craig’s “Millionaire Coaching Program” send an email to [email protected] with thesubject line “Millionaire”.