Topley’s Top Ten – January 21, 2020

Author

Matt Topley
January 21, 2020

1.Record Bond Inflows in First Week of January 2020.

2.Another Way to Look at Value vs. Growth Stocks Hitting 1999 Spreads in Valuations.

#2020Charts Value vs Growth: theinvestment strategy graveyard is littered with failed calls for a turnaround inthe performance of value vs growth stocks. But I think we could be close to themuch-awaited and much-forecast turning point. Relative value between the twocohorts is at the lowest point in 20 years, and in terms of macro catalysts, myexpectations for higher bond yields, better growth, and higher commodity priceswill help the sectors that are slightly over-represented in value vs growth. Sodon’t forget about value. https://lnkd.in/fh96yU3

TopDown Charts

3.2019 IPO Stats

Phil Mackintosh Nasdaq

4.Blank Check Companies Made UP 1/4 of New Offerings in 2019.

Barrons

‘Blank-Check’ Companies Are Hot onWall Street. Investors Can’t Ignore Them.-By Nicholas Jasinski

These were special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, alsoknown as “blank-check companies.” Their goal is to raise money from public andprivate investors and then identify an acquisition target and buy it, typicallywithin two years. SPACs raised $13.6 billion in 59 IPOs last year.

5.Taiwan ETF Jumps 25% in 5 Months Post-Election….But Its 25% One Stock TSM.

Rally in Taiwan ETF …Semiconductor/Tech Driven More Than Election?

52% Technology Stocks…25% TSM

6.Interesting Economic Data Point….China’s Imports Turned Positive from Europe and Japan After All of 2019 Negative.

The Daily Shot WSJ

7.Stat of the Day…Since Xmas Eve 2018 Pullback….S&P +40% with Dividends but Earnings Up 1.1% in 2019

S&P Driven by drop in interest rates and sentiment ??

The S&P 500’s forward P/E hit 18.5 on Tuesday—a cyclicalhigh, according to Yardeni Research’s data. The multiple soared from aChristmas Eve 2018 low of 13.5, as the index has since climbed 40% despitesluggish 1.1% earnings growth in 2019.

8.Household Debt as a Percentage of GDP

9.Apple Committed $6B to Original Content

Amazon: $6 billion on original content

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) spent$1.7 billion on music and video content in the first quarter of 2019, anincrease of 13% year over year that put the company on pace for $7 billion ofcontent spending in 2019. But that combined total makes it tough to figure outhow much Amazon is spending on video as opposed to music.

Accordingto one analysis, Amazon’s 2019 content budget will include roughly $6 billionearmarked for original content. That figure would put Amazon neck and neck witha new competitor: Apple.

Apple: $6 billion

Apple‘s (NASDAQ:AAPL) newstreaming service, Apple TV+, is designed to take on Netflix and draw customersto Apple’s TV app, an Amazon Channels-like service that gives Apple anotherchance to charge a platform tax. But Apple TV+ is entering a market withestablished competitors like Netflix, and Apple does not have a back catalog toleverage like Disney does.

What itdoes have, like its peers in the tech industry, is a lot ofcash on hand. Apple is using that cash to play catch-up. Apple’s big spendingon original content has only gotten bigger since numbers werefirst reported, and it now stands at an eye-popping $6 billion.

AT&T: $14.3 billion in2018 and likely more in 2019

AT&T‘s (NYSE:T) HBOboasts some of the biggest shows in streaming — and some of the priciest, too. AT&T spent awhopping $14.3 billion on content in 2018, according to RBC Capital Marketsanalysts. With a new streaming service on the way, AT&T is likely to spendeven more this year.

AT&Thas already beefed up HBO’s streaming budget (HBO spent about $2 billion a yearbefore being acquired), and now it’s poised to spend even more to get HBO Maxoff the ground.

Disney: $23.8 billion but notall for streaming ($1 billion on Disney+ originals)

WaltDisney (NYSE:DIS) is making a big push in thestreaming space, because it already has a lot of content to offer subscribers,so it’s no surprise to find some numbers here that aren’t completely relevantand others that look a little low. Disney’s entire content budget is $23.8billion — but that includes content not only for three streaming services(Disney+, ESPN+, and Hulu) but for non-streaming outlets like movie cinemas andDisney-owned television channels (like ABC and Freeform) as well. Take out s

Motley Fool How Much Are theStreaming Giants Spending on Content?–There are some deep-pocketed contenders entering the streamingrace.StephenLovely

10.7 Steps To Reinvent Yourself In 2020

JackKellySenior Contributor 

I writeactionable interview, career and salary advice.

The holiday season and New Year is atime for reflection and introspection. In addition to celebrating with familyand friends, we tend to start thinking about the direction of our lives andcareers. 

Heading into a new decade can be asobering event. It makes you think of where you are in your career and if it’s headingin the right direction. You deeply contemplate if you’re truly happy andengaged in meaningful work.  People may have an existential crisis andgrow concerned that they’re stuck, and will continue doing the same exact thingnext year and the following decade. Sometimes it’s disappointment over thecompensation, other times your job lacks a purpose. Even if you’re well-paid,your job may leave you feeling empty on the inside.

Most people are on autopilot. They go toa job that they hate, promise themselves they’ll do something about it, butthey never take action. These people become discouraged, bitter and unhappy. Wesee them all the time at the office. They’re passive aggressive, try to getaway with doing the bare minimum amount of work, blame others for their lack ofcareer momentum and are generally unpleasant to interact with. If you startfeeling that this is happening to you, it may be time to reinvent yourself. TheNew Year and fresh decade is the perfect time to start. Here is how to begin reinventingyourself:

GETTY

TodayIn: Leadership

  1.  Beprepared, changing course may not be easy. It could require you to leave behinda nice, safe job and career. Your identity is most likely tied-up in yourposition and you’ll lose the social status associated with it. Family, friendsand colleagues will look at you differently and wonder what’s wrong with you.Since they’re afraid to try something new and exciting, they’ll assume thatyou’re running away.

  2. Carefullydecide what you really want to do next. The chances are high that you’vealready been secretly thinking of what you’d like to do with your life. Now’sthe time to put together an action plan to accomplish the switch and achieveyour dreams. You need to figure out how long it will take to transition to anew career, job or profession. 

  3. Itwould be helpful if you could maintain your current position while startingyour new business, venture or job. Ensure that you have sufficient funds savedto bridge the gap between your current job and the new field you’re trying tobreak into, since you may initially earn a lesser income.

  4. Youhave to be honest with yourself—do you possess the mental and emotionalstrength to start all over again? Whenever you start anew, there will beaccompanying stress, anxiety and uncertainty.

  5. Conductdue diligence into the job, profession or business that you desire to pursue.Make sure that it will pay enough to warrant the change and that there is solidgrowth potential. Try to find people who are currently engaged in theprofession that you want to go into. Seek out a mentor who can offer advice andguidance. For instance, if you wish to stop being an attorney and become ateacher, speak with as many educators as possible. If you can’t find one, readas much as possible about the area you’re entering. You want to find out thereal deal before you make the leap.

  6. Don’tput too much pressure on yourself. Allow a reasonable amount of time to achieveyour goal. If the pivot requires going back to school, it could take a numberof years. Once you move into the new space you probably won’t earn as much asyou previously did. However, as time goes on your financial situation willvastly improve. You will gain more experience and grow into your new space.Since you are highly motivated for the change, you will probably work harderthan the other employees. You’ll be happy, excited and motivated in this newendeavor. People will notice this and you will quickly moveforward.  

  7. Ifyou find out that this new job or profession is not what you thought it wouldbe, you can always return to your past profession or try something else. Onceyou have a taste for taking chances, it becomes easier to do it again. As longas you have confidence in yourself, you can keep trying until you find theright fit that makes you happy, fulfilled and looking forward to waking upevery morning.