Topley’s Top Ten – January 23, 2020

Author

Matt Topley
January 23, 2020

1.More Gundlach Slides…..Commodities/Dow Jones Ratio at All-Time Lows.

S&P 500 vs. High Yield

2.Commodities 2019 Returns.

3.Emerging Markets Faster Earnings Growth But Also Dollar Dependent.

4.8 Out of 11 Sectors at Record Valuations

5.Market Rallied Right Thru Geopolitical Risk Increases

6.Boeing $40B+ in Buybacks

Stock Has Not Broken End of 2018 Lows

After Blowing $43 Bn on Share-Buybacks in 6 Years, BoeingScrambles to Borrow $10 Bn, on Top of a $9.5 Bn Credit Line in Oct, to Fund its737 MAX Fiascoby Wolf Richter •  .

7.Inventory of Homes for Sale at Decades Low

8.No Institutions Show UP as Both Trustworthy and Competent

2020 Edelman Trust Barometer

9. Wall Street’s next trading innovation: Air-fare derivatives 

Wall Street’s next trading innovation: Air-fare derivatives

PUBLISHED THU, JAN 23 20206:01 AM ESTUPDATED MOMENTS AGO

  • Just like airlines use oil futures to hedge against thevolatility in fuel costs, they will soon be able to do the same with the swingsin ticket fares.

  • Airbus is partnering with the Nasdaq exchange to launch aplatform called Skytra that will enable airlines to manage its revenue risksfor the first time by trading futures and options contracts based onproprietary indices.

  • The company said it has been developing benchmarks to track thedaily changes in the price of air travel for two years.

An Airbus narrow body plane

Nicolas Economou | NurPhoto | Getty Images

Europeanplanemaker Airbus is working with Nasdaq todevelop a derivatives-based trading platform that will allow airlines toprotect against swings in ticket prices.

Just likeairline companies use oil futures to hedge against the volatility in fuelcosts, they will soon be able to do the same with the swings in ticket fares,which fluctuate drastically during holidays, events and different weather.

TheLondon-based platform Skytra will enable airlines to manage its revenue risksfor the first time by trading futures and options contracts based on itsproprietary indices. The company said it has been developing benchmarks totrack the daily changes in the price of air travel for two years.

Nasdaq willprovide technology to ensure functionality including matching, surveillance,risk management and regulatory reporting.

Airbus haspartnered with a company that “tracks every ticket price, pretrade andaftertrade,” Adena Friedman, president and CEO of Nasdaq, said on CNBC’s ”″ onThursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “They are able tolook at certain routes and certain regions in the world and they can say howmuch the price has changed and they create an index on that.”

“It’s alsoreally helpful for travel agency businesses too,” Friedman said. “They are notoffering this right now to consumers. It’s definitely a professional market,but at the same time, the consumers use travel agencies … they should be ableto pass that benefit on.”

“Skytra hasbeen created in collaboration with the air travel industry and players outsideit to enable more financial predictability in a volatile market,” ChristianScherer, Airbus’ chief commercial officer, said in a statement.

Airlineshave long been exposed to uncertainties around short-term revenue. Up to 90% ofthe tickets are booked within 90 days before take-off, and reduced demand orincreased seat supply can hurt sales significantly, according to Airbus.

FinancialTimes first reported Airbus’ plans to launch such a venue.

10.9 Steps to Create Changes That Will Last

Want tochange your behavior? Build sticky habits.

  • Gustavo Razzetti

Makingchanges in your life can seem like a daunting task.

Joining agym is easy. It doesn’t take much effort to start reading a book or kick offa diet on Monday either.

But, asthe week progresses, it becomes harder to find the motivation to cook a healthy meal. You can’t findthe willpower to open a book instead of watching yet another episode of yourfavorite Netflix show.

Despiteyour commitment, you fail to stick to your new habits.

Butwillpower and commitment have nothing to do with achieving change. What youneed is to build sticky habits.

It wasWill Durant — not Aristotle — who said, “We are what we repeatedly do.Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.”

Thisarticle will give you 9 steps to build habits that last long. They have provento work for me and hundreds of teams I’ve coached.

Habitsare automated behaviors we do every day without noticing it. Building themrequires time and purpose. But once they stick, you can achieve almosteverything.

Step 1:Own Your Change

“Always be a first-rate version of yourselfand not a second rate version of someone else.”  ― Judy Garland

Stickingto a habit seems pretty tough. Indeed. It’s not easy — but you can do it. Itall starts by owning the change you want to create.

Ican’t stress this enough. Most people fail to changebecause their goals are not theirs. They want to copy someone else’s habits orto please other people.

Don’t letexternal pressure define how you live. The struggle to get social approval iscreating unprecedented levels of anxiety and depression. Improvingyour habits should be a fun experience. It shouldn’t add more stress to yourlife.

Externalinspiration can be a good motivator. Seeing your neighbor running every morningcan inspire you to train for a marathon too.

But,think twice before you embark on a new habit. Do you really want to do it? Ordo you feel pressured because everyone else is doing it?

If youdon’t own your goals, you will never succeed. To make them stick, new habitsmust be yours, not someone else’s wishes.

Step 2:Upgrade Your Mindset, Upgrade Your Habits

“If you are down, be good to yourself andlisten. If you are up, be good to others and share.” ―Waylon Lewis

Change isnot about willpower or personal strength. The struggle to achieve new behaviorshappens in your mind. Overcoming procrastination is an emotional battle,not a productivity one.

Developingsticky habits requires upgrading our mindset.

Thestories you tell yourself about yourself define what you are capable of (ornot). We are victims of our own fantasies. As Carl Jung wrote, “The most important questionanyone can ask is: What myth am I living?”

Yourmindsets are the lenses through which you see the world. Your thoughts,beliefs, and expectations shape your life. They filter the choices you makeevery day — without you noticing it.

Face yourresistance. Which beliefs are saying “no” to your desires? Your past influencesyou, but it shouldn’t define you. That you failed once or twice doesn’t meanyou always will. We learn to walk by standing up every time we fall.

Perfectionism is the enemy of change. The only wayto learn something new is to do it. You will always suck at the beginning.That’s okay. Let go of trying to be perfect.Let the path unfold.

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Be kindto yourself. Building new habits is not a linear path. Self-compassion is thekey to help you overcome failure or procrastination.

Changetakes time. Be patient. But, most importantly, enjoy your journey. Aim forconsistency and improvement, not perfection.

Step 3:Focus On Your Dream, Not Your Goals

“I kept believing and dreaming. “If you keep believing you can go really farin life.”―Roger Federer

Mostpeople fail to achieve their goals. They focus on the target instead ofactivating the law of attraction. Goals help us track progress, but they don’tspark desire.

What isthe best exercise for you? The one that you actually do. As Nir Eyal explains on his blog, attempting toincorporate habits that we have to, instead of wanting to, doesn’twork.

Reactance is a psychological phenomenon thatdescribes our tendency to resist doing things we feel coerced to. When we focuson habits we hate, we create negative self-feedback.

Forhabits to stick, you must enjoy doing them. That’s the problem with goals — wefocus on the end destination, not the journey. Do things you love. And learn tolove what you do.

Discoverhow to make new habits more enjoyable.

Goodhabits liberate the best version of ourselves. Focus on becoming a better you,not the goal. Instead of “I’m going to lose 10 pounds in a month,” think of, “Iwill feel energized by exercising three times a week.”

See ituntil you make it. Visualize what you want to achieve. See the change you wantto become. Visualizations propel your mindinto action. See the new you unfold.

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RogerFederer won Wimbledon after a 5-year drought on majors. Many non-believershad written him off and expected Federer to retire. But Roger keptbelieving and dreaming. Until he made history once again.

Having a strongpurpose and passion drives action, not a target.

Step 4:Go Slow to Go Fast

“Chains of habit are too light to be feltuntil they are too heavy to be broken.” ―Warren Buffet

Toachieve significant, sticky habits, you must build your way up through moremanageable behaviors. Building momentum is more important than the initialachievement. Go slow so you can then go fast.

Changingyour life means changing small day-to-day habits. Minimum Viable Changes are smalldoses of tiny changes that can create a big impact. MVCs areeasy to put in place, generate less resistance, and build momentum faster.

An MVC issmall but also enjoyable. It doesn’t require a significant effort on yourend. Cutting a new habit into smaller chunks makes iteasier to achieve it.

Let’ssay you want to meditate every day.Carve 5 minutes each morning to start building the routine. Or, if you want toread one book a month, start by reading four pages every day.

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Don’t getobsessed with the outcome. When you build the right cadence, results will startto pile up unnoticed.

Successbreeds success. Start addressing the small things that you feel more confidentabout. Focus on building chains of habits until they become too strong to bebroken.

Step 5:Replace Existing Habits with New Ones

“It isnot a daily increase, but a daily decrease. Hack away at the inessentials.” ―Bruce Lee

Time islimited. And so is our willingness to do more things. Many people fail toachieve new habits because they keep adding more and more tasks. Untilthey burn out.

Self-control is the mental power we all need todrive change. It’s critical to resist distractions or to keep going in spite offailure or frustration. But it is not limitless.

Researchshows that self-control is an exhaustible resource. As the Heath brothersexplain on Switch, what looks like laziness is alwaysexhaustion. Too much self-improvement can wear you out.

Ratherthan adding new practices, replace old habits. One of the best ways to replacebad habits with good ones is to treat them like old clothes, as Keshav Bhatt wrote here.When a t-shirt is no longer useful, you replace it with a better one.

Also,it’s more motivating to start a new behavior than to stop doing something else.Instead of “I’m going to stop eating sugar,” think, “I want to start eatingmore mindfully and take care of my body.”

Replacingbehaviors is about simplifying. You focus on what you want to start doing,rather than on the loss — your old habit.

Step 6:Get an Accountability Partner

“The price of greatness isresponsibility.” — Winston Churchill

No onechanges the world alone.

Mostpeople fail to change when they try to do it on their own. Peer to peer supportis an effective way to improve our habits. It means getting help and advicefrom someone like you.

Get helpfrom someone who “has been there, done that.”

Peer topeer support increases your chances of success. Having a goal with a clear‘when’ and ‘how’ augment your chances of succeeding by 50%. Having an accountability partner increasesyour odds to 95%.

An accountabilitypartner is your duo. This reciprocal relationship complements your skills. It’sabout two people who meet as equals to provide each other with feedback andsupport.

Find yourpartner in crime. It could be a friend, colleague, spouse, orfamily member.

Youraccountability partner sees what you are missing and keeps you on track. Mostimportantly, it’s your go-to person — s/he has your back.

Use this tool to design aneffective accountability partnership.

Peer topeer support not only increases your chances of success. It will help you fortifynew habits, so they stick longer.

Step 7:Don’t Fool Yourself

“Lying toourselves is more deeply ingrained than lying to others.” ― Fyodor Dostoevsky

Self-improvementcan be deceiving. Our perception of progress can blind ourself-awareness.

Forexample, people who start exercising more often tend to overeat. Theyunconsciously believe that the effort they put out gives them permission toindulge.

Many ofus fall prey to moral licensing. Wehave a psychological tendency to splurge in one area of our life when we’rebeing good in another.

Researchshows that people who buy green, environmental-friendly products are more proneto cheat. And those who believe multivitamins provide significant healthbenefits usually exercise less than the rest. And are also less likely to choose healthyfood.

Keepyour bias in check. Working with an accountabilitypartner can help you uncover your blind spots. Don’t turn progress intooverconfidence.

Step 8:Design the Right Environment

“It isnot only what we do, but also what we do not do, for which we areaccountable.”― Moliere

Setyourself for success. Remove distractions and create the right influence.

Don’tunderestimate the power of your environment. External stimuli easily influenceour minds. Research shows that shifting from 12-inch plates to10-inch ones decreases calorie consumption by 22%.

Designthe right environment for the area of your life you want to change. If you wantto get fit, show up at the gym or join a group, and exercise together. If youwant to stop snacking, remove all temptations from your pantry.

Don’t gettoo comfortable either. Turn a familiar place into an unfamiliar one. Make sometweaks to create positive stimulation. Change your workplace from time to time.

Residentsof Okinawa, Japan live seven years more than the average American. They alsohave one fifth the rate of cardiovascular disease. One reason is that Okinawansdon’t have easy access to chairs. The natural discomfort of sitting on thefloor makes them get up and go for a walk — up to 30 times each day.

To bemore productive, cut distractions that take away your focus. If your phone isan issue, silence all alerts, remove frivolous apps, or keep the device in adifferent room.

Step 9:One Habit at a Time

“Focusing is about saying No.” ―Steve Jobs

Never underestimateyour inner strength. But don’t become overconfident either. Avoid thetemptation of trying to incorporate too many habits at once.

Imaginethat you want to learn a new language. Learning several at the same time can beconfusing. You would probably end up mixing words or confusing the differentgrammar and sentence structures.

The sameapplies to building new habits. Repetition, consistency, and focus are vital tobuilding familiarity. Master one before you add a new habit to your repertoire.

This ruleapplies to all aspects of your life — fitness, professional, family, health,hobbies, etc.

Neverbreak the one habit at a time rule. Avoid adding a new behaviorbefore one has stuck.

PuttingIt All Together

Buildingsticky habits requires a method and time. Be patient.

Becomeyour own measure of success. Don’t compare your initial progress to whatsomeone accomplished after years of practice.

Anaccountability partner will increase your chances of success. Having one willnot only keep you focused but also remind you to treat yourself kindly.

Unexpectedevents will always get in your way. That’s life. If you feel you are fallingbehind, remember the “Go slow to go fast” rule. Go back and rebuild momentum.Turn small little changes into big sticky habits.

Becomethe best version of yourself — one habit at a time.

This postwas originally published on the Liberationist blog.