Topley’s Top Ten – January 3, 2020

Author

Matt Topley
January 03, 2020

1.Who was Qassem Soleimani, and why is his death a major development in U.S.-Middle East relations?

An Iranian carries the portraits of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Gen. Qassem Soleimani, left.

Qassem Soleimani, leader of the foreign wing ofIran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was killed in a U.S. airstrike atBaghdad’s international airport Friday, local time, escalating long-brewinganimosities between Tehran and Washington.

President Donald Trump authorized the airstrike thatkilled Soleimani, a top Iranian general who is consideredone of the most revered military leaders in the Islamic Republic: “At thedirection of the president, the U.S. military has taken decisive defensiveaction to protect U.S. personnel abroad by killing,” the U.S. Department ofDefense said in a statement.

In a tweet, Iran’sForeign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif described the strike that killed thegeneral as an act of international terrorism: “The US’ act of internationalterrorism, targeting & assassinating General Soleimani—THE most effectiveforce fighting Daesh (ISIS), Al Nusrah, Al Qaeda et al—is extremely dangerous &a foolish escalation,” he wrote on Twitter. “The US bears responsibility forall consequences of its rogue adventurism,” he said.

The US’ act of international terrorism, targeting &assassinating General Soleimani—THE most effective force fighting Daesh (ISIS),Al Nusrah, Al Qaeda et al—is extremely dangerous & a foolish escalation.The US bears responsibility for all consequences of its rogue adventurism.

The U.S. has said thatthe assassination of Soleimani was an attempt to deter attacks against U.S.embassies, service members or diplomats.

Here’s why the death ofthe general is particularly significant in the intensifying tensions betweenthe U.S. and Iran.

Who was Soleimani?

“He’s probably the most powerful figure that isgenerally unknown outside Iran and the Middle East. He’s essentially Iran’sviceroy for Iraq,” Jim Phillips, Middle East analyst for conservative thinktank the Heritage Foundation, was quoted as saying in a 2015 interview with NBC News.

Soleimani rose to prominence duringthe 1980–’88 Iran-Iraq War, and by 2013 had become one of Iran’s most importantfigures.

Soleimani was named major general of the QudsForce in 1998 and ran it until his death. The Quds Force has no equivalent inthe U.S. but has been described as “analogous to a combined CIA and SpecialForces,” according to an article in the NewYorker back in 2013. The Quds Force, which is estimated toconsist of about 20,000 personnel, has been designated a terrorist group by theU.S. since 2007, according to reports.

The New Yorker article alsodescribed Soleimani as “ the single most powerful operative in the Middle Easttoday,” citing former CIA officer John Maguire.

Reports have had alsodescribed Soleiman as second to only the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameneiin power in Iran.

In fact, Khamenei hasreferred to Suleimani as “a living martyr of the revolution,” and last Marchexpressed hope that he would die as one.

“I hope that Allah the Exalted will reward andbless him, that he will help him live a blissful life and that he will make hisend marked by martyrdom,” Khamenei said ashe awarded Soleimani the Order of Zulfaqar — thehighest miliary honor in Iran that was established in 1856 and had not beenawarded since 1979 until it was revived to honor the Quds Force commander.

To some U.S. leaders, Soleimani has been viewedas a shadowy figure. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo referred to him as “dangerousas Islamic State leader Abu al-Baghdadi,” who was killed ina U.S.-led raid in northwestern Syria in late October.

“Qassem Soleimani has the blood of Americans onhis hands, Bret, as does the force that he leads, and America is determined eachtime we find an organization, institution or an individual that has taken thelives of Americans, it is our responsibility,” Pompeo told Fox News’s BretBaier in an interview back in April 2018, after the U.S. designated Iran’sRevolutionary Guards Corps a foreign terrorist organization,marking the first time that the U.S. has labeled an entity of anothergovernment as a terrorist organization.

It isn’t clear how Iran will respond to thedeath of the revered leader, but analysts and observers on Friday werespeculating that Tehran would consider Soleimani’s death an act of war.

2. US Embassy urges Americans to flee Iraq ‘immediately’ following Soleimani killing

PUBLISHED FRI, JAN 3 20204:09 AM ESTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO

KEY POINTS

  • The targeted killing of Major-General Qasem Soleimani, leader ofthe elite Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has drawnpromises of retaliation from Tehran.

  • In a security alert issued Friday morning, the U.S. Embassy inIraq has told American citizens to “depart via airline while possible, andfailing that, to other countries via land.”

The U.S.Embassy in Baghdad has urged American citizens to “depart Iraq immediately”after a U.S. airstrike killed Iran’s top military commander,spiking tension in Iraq and the Middle East.

In a security alert issued Fridaymorning, the U.S. Embassy told citizens to “depart via airline whilepossible, and failing that, to other countries via land.”

Thetargeted killing of Major-General Qasem Soleimani, leader of the elite QudsForce of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has drawn promises of retaliation from Tehran.

IranianForeign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Friday that the move was a“foolish escalation,” while Iranian Defense Minister Amir Hatami was quoted bystate news agency IRNA as threatening a “crushing revenge.”

Followingattacks by Iranian-backed militias on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, all publicconsular operations have been suspended until further notice, while U.S.citizens have been advised not to approach the Embassy.

Soleimaniwas killed by a U.S. military airstrike at Baghdad’s international airport onThursday, a move the Pentagon confirmed was directed by U.S. President DonaldTrump.

3.Short-Term Complacency Set in with Investors.

4.2019’s $326B ETF Inflows 2nd Largest Ever

Fixed IncomeOutpaces Equities

Perhaps themost surprising aspect of 2019’s ETF flows was the fact that U.S. fixed incomeETFs managed to attract more new money than U.S. equity ETFs. On net, $135.4billion flowed into U.S. fixed income ETFs, while $130.2 billion went into U.S.equity ETFs.

The gap waseven wider earlier in the year—more than $30 billion—when bonds surged, theyield curve inverted and concerns about a potential recession were greatest.Those concerns have since melted away, but the flows into fixed income ETFsremained strong throughout the year.

Four U.S.fixed income ETFs and one international fixed income ETF claimed spots on thetop 10 inflows list: the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND),the iSharesCore U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), the iShares MBSETF (MBB),the iSharesU.S. Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT) and the Vanguard TotalInternational Bond ETF (BNDX).

In a hugeinflow year, here are the biggest losers.

5.Volatility of Primaries is Often Followed by Strong Returns.

5 keys to investing in 2020-Joyce Gordon, DarrellSpence and Mike Gitlin.

6.The U.S. Dollar Still Used in 88% of Foreign Exchange Transactions.

Euro fails to reach “parity” with the dollar.

The creation of the euro came with a lot of hopeful rhetoric thatit would reach parity with the US dollar in every way, including as globaltrade currency, global financing currency, and global reserve currency. Theeuro has been replacing in phases the national currencies of EU member states,starting with five currencies, including the Deutsche mark, a major reservecurrency at the time, but far below the dollar. During the initial phase of theconversion of European currencies to the euro, the euro’s share of globalreserve currencies rose and the dollar’s share fell from 71.5% in 2001 to 66.5%in 2002.

Now, the Eurozone, with its 19 member states, would be the largesteconomy in the world if it were counted as a country. And it was assumed byeuro boosters that given the size of the Eurozone, its currency would reachparity with the dollar and end the dollar hegemony. These hopes were trashed bythe sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, and the euro’s share has since beenhovering in the range of 19% to 21%. In the third quarter, the euro’s share ofglobal foreign exchange reserves ticked down to 20.1%.

7. The World Of Wine: Visualizing An Industry Ripe For Disruption

by Tyler DurdenZero Hedge.Winemaking is often thought of as a symbol of transformation.

Whilethe fermented drink dates back 9,000 years, Visual Capitalist’s Katie Jones points out that the wine market is nowexperiencing its own transformation due to technological innovation, andthe introduction of new business models. Generating $370 billion inrevenue in 2019, the global industry is expected to grow considerably over thenext decade—but not as we know it.

Today’sinfographic from Raconteur explores wine consumption by region, andlooks at how changing tastes are driving a new era of the millennia-old staple.

8.The Expectation Trap: The Mindset That Makes You Overreact to Disappointments

Setbacksdo a little bit more than just slow you down. They actually threaten to makeyou stuck

By Thomas Oppong, Founder of Alltopstartups

If you’ve felt disappointedabout something, recently, you are not alone.

Many people immediately feeldisappointed in themselves when they fail to keep their resolutions, reach agoal, or deliver on their deadlines. They feel let down and somewhat defeated.

It’s human nature, but thereis a way around it to get back on track immediately after a major setback.Disappointments shouldn’t feel like a trap. Even though it’s an emotiontriggered unconsciously, you can deal with it, and keep moving.

Manageyour expectations: put yourself in a better mental state

Failure can take a massivetoll on your emotions — what’s important is the mindset before and after thedisappointment.

When we consider taking anyaction, we form prior expectations (both big small). And if the outcome isworse than expected, we experience disappointment. If the outcome exceeds ourexpectation, we feel happy or even motivated to keep pursuing other goals.

In other words, when thingsgo right, you feel happy. But when things go wrong, you feel frustration,regret and yes…often disappointed in yourself.

Expectations sometimes stemfrom misguided certainty.

Expectations can trap us whenwe cannot see past them. Your expectations going into any situation will alwaysdetermine how you will feel after the event has taken place.

When we lead with them andcome out with something very different from our desires, disappointment istypically the result. When an expectation is not met, the result is anxiety,inner turmoil, and disappointment if not managed.

Expectations in and ofthemselves are actually harmless. But they can get the better of us only whenthey become rigid barriers keeping us from taking the right actions or movingpast our disappointments.

In many situations,attachment to the outcome is the real culprit. Whilst you need an emotionalconnection to your goals, sometimes the same emotion becomes a trap. Instead ofstaying locked in a constant struggle to get specific results or experience,maintain a flexible mindset about your expectations.

“It’s very possible that youinitially aimed a little too high and too quickly. A modified objective willprovide you with a realistic target you can work towards. And, of course, onceyou hit that mark you can then raise the bar higher the next timearound,” explains AdamSicinski, Founder IQ Matrix.

Set attainable goals, andenjoy the process that leads to the outcome. Bring your consciousness about theoutcome (both positive and negative) up to a more neutral or positive level sothat you are in a better position to react the outcome— being trapped in theemotional outcome prevents you from thinking logically about both the processand the outcome.

Many people can’t get overtheir disappointments because they are hung up over what reality should be — asingle perception or lens with which they see the world.

They think in terms of binaryopposition (black or white), a common mental error that can distortyour perception of reality. When you are trapped dichotomous thinking,everything becomes “this or that”. You fixate on how things “should be” or“must be”.

Example, if you think hardskills are the only most important things employers want, a rejection of yourapplication can make it difficult to process that disappointment.

In your mind, you continue tohang on to the perception that you are the right person for the project or jobbecause your hard skills cannot be matched — but this can be an illusionbecause your prospective employers may be using a different lens — soft skills.

If you improve yourperception about both, you could have learned other equally important skills toincrease your chances of getting what you want.

By attaching yourself to asingle train of thought, or perception about anything, you increase yourchances of getting disappointed. It also prevents you from moving on after amajor setback.

As long as you are trapped init, you can’t get to where you want to go.

The moment you beginchallenging yourself to think objectively about your circumstances is themoment you gain the clarity you need to start figuring things out and gettingpast outcomes that are not ideal.

Think ofyour disappointments as an opportunity to understand the gaps in your mentalframework

Disappointment sometimescomes from the mismatch between reality and expectation. Use them to understandyour mindsets, beliefs, assumptions and worldviews.

“Disappointment can actuallybe an incredibly powerful emotion that can help you clarify your personalexpectations and pave the way forward toward the attainment of your goals,”says Adam.

If you know why you’redisappointed, you’ve got a head start on being able to make a better plan basedon new mental models (framework or worldview.

Once you understand whythings didn’t turn out the way you expected, you can correct your blind spots,assumptions, and make set measurable, realistic, and attainable goals.

Dealing with disappointmentrequires you to let go of your mental illusions and expectations. “Many peopleget disappointed with something because they view it as a setback. They feellike they have taken a step back from what they want to be,” argues CelestineChua, the writer of Personal Excellence.

When you are disappointed,ask yourself:

What were my expectationsabout these circumstances? What expectations did I have about myself? Whatfalse perceptions or mental models am I clinging on to? What am I expectingfrom reality that I’m not getting?”

These questions might helpyou recognize that perhaps your expectations weren’t quite flexible orrealistic enough.

Question your assumptionsabout goals, processes of reaching them and outcomes. Become aware of them,improve them and use them to handle the outcomes better. Seek out your personalillusions and improve your mindset.

Managing disappointments taketime. As you start living past your disappointments, remember, it’s onlytemporary. Wallowing in disappointment can weigh heavily on your mind, and cankeep you stuck.

Although setbacks, roadblocks,and defeats are all obstacles that can stand in your way, cut yourself someslack, give yourself time to overcome them, make peace with yourdisappointments, learn from them, adjust your perception and regain control tokeep moving.

This article was originally published on Medium.

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—Published on December 31, 2019