Topley’s Top Ten – January 8, 2019

Author

Matt Topley
January 08, 2020

1.Great Look at The U.S. Economy Being Much Less Sensitive to Higher Oil Prices.

Torston Slok The US economyis much less sensitive to higher oil prices today than it used to be, see chartbelow and here.

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Let us know if you wouldlike to add a colleague to this distribution list.

Torsten Sløk, Ph.D.Chief EconomistManaging Director

2.Hedge Funds Heavy Oil Bet

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

RHETORIC RAMP– Iran is considering 13 scenariosto avenge the killing of a top Iranian military commander in Iraq by a U.S.drone attack – Even the weakest option would prove “a historic nightmare forthe Americans,” they said.  Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah AliKhamenei and military commanders have said Iranian retaliation for theU.S. action on Friday would match the scale of Soleimani’s killing but that itwould be at a time and place of Tehran’s choosing.

Despite its strident rhetoric,analysts say Iran will want to avoid any conventional conflict with the UnitedStates but assymetric strikes, such as sabotage or other morelimited military actions, are more likely.

Trump administration officials willprovide a classified briefing for U.S. senators on Wednesday on events in Iraqafter some lawmakers accused the White House of risking a broadconflict without a strategy.

From Dave Lutz at JonesTrading

3.Good Look at the Difference Between 10 and 20 Year Market Returns.

Silicon Hills Wealth

4.2019 Returns Were All Multiple Expansion….Fed Lowering Rates

Alliance Bernstein Blog

5.History of Returns Vs. Standard Deviation.

Dimensional Funds

6.Record Extreme In Bond Flows Vs. Stock Flows.

The flow into bonds has exceeded the flow into stocks by $600b-NED DAVIS RESEARCH

7.U.S. Stocks More Expensive Than International Across All Measures.

BCA RESEARCH

WSJ-The Daily Shot

8.Who Knew?  Who Came Up With the Concept of Old Age?

Hartford Funds

Who Came Up With The Concept Of“Old Age” Anyway?

Our very notion of “oldage” is made up. It’s a socially constructed, historicallycontingent, and deeply flawed idea. This narrowly focused narrative no longerapplies to a majority of us—yet, we tell it every day. We still agree to liveit.

ATime When You Didn’t Retire

%working after age 641

75%of workers 65 and older were employed in 1880. By 2016, that number had droppedto 19%. Why? Prior to pensions and Social Security, aging workers knew that ifthey stopped working, they’d have to rely on family for support. Or worse, theymight have to move into an almshouse, where they could have possibly foundthemselves bunking next to some unsavory characters.

The Origins Of Retirement

It wasn’t so long ago when acompletely different idea of aging was taken for granted in the United States.Our current story of “old age” began in the second half of the 19th century.Though it was first told in a much different world than we live in today, it’sstill the measuring stick we use.

The Union Army Pension,instituted in 1890, provided payments to American Civil War veterans and theirwives when a recipient hit his 60s. Prior to its existence, retirement was notsomething aging workers looked forward to very much. It meant you weren’t toofar away from death.

This pension provided the firstindication that this norm might change and a subset of the population wouldvoluntarily stop working before they were physically unable to continue.

9.US cancer death rate sees largest-ever single-year drop, report says

(CNN)Therate of people dying from cancer in the United States continued to decline forthe 26th year in a row, according to a new American Cancer Society report.

From 2016 to 2017, the UnitedStates saw its largest-ever single-year drop in overall cancer deaths, a 2.2%plunge spurred in part by a sharp decline in lung cancer deaths, according tothe report, published Wednesday in CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians.

“What is really drivingthat is the acceleration in the decline of mortality for lung cancer, and thereason that is encouraging is because lung cancer is the leading cause ofcancer death, causing more deaths in the US than breast, colorectal cancer and prostatecancers combined,” said Rebecca Siegel, first author of the report andscientific director of surveillance research at the American Cancer Society inAtlanta.

“That’s really importantand reflects improvements in the treatment of lung cancer across the continuumfrom improvements in staging to advances in surgical techniques, improvementsin radiotherapy, all of these things coming together,” she said. “Wewere very encouraged to see that not only is the decline continuing for cancermortality but we saw the biggest single-year drop ever from 2016 to 2017.”

Reductions in smoking,improvements in treatment

The report included data oncancer incidence, mortality and survival in the United States from sourcesincluding the National Center for Health Statistics,National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology and EndResults Program, the National Program of Cancer Registries andthe North American Association of Central Cancer Registries.Some of the information dates back to 1930 and the most recent data is from2017. Using that data, the report also projects estimated numbers of new casesand deaths that could emerge in the United States in 2020.

An analysis of the datashowed that, since its peak of about 215 cancer deaths for every 100,000 peoplein 1991, the cancer death rate in the United States has continued to fall.

The report found an overalldrop of 29% as of 2017, which translates into an estimated 2.9 million fewercancer deaths than what would have occurred if death rates had remained attheir peak, according to the report.

“We’ve had thiscontinuous decline in the cancer death rate for the past 26 years,” Siegelsaid.

“The biggest driver isthe reductions in smoking, but also contributing are improvements in treatmentas well as early detection for some cancers, like breast and colorectalcancer,” she said. “It was exciting that we’re seeing that declinecontinue because for other leading causes of death like heart disease andcerebrovascular disease progress is really slowing and in fact death rates havestabilized for cerebrovascular disease,” or stroke.

Heart disease remainsthe leading cause of death in theUnited States, and cancer ranks as the second leading cause of deathin the United States.

The report noted thatdeclines in death due to four major cancers — lung, breast, prostate andcolorectal — reflect the progress that has been made against the disease.

As of 2017, the death ratefor lung cancer dropped by 51% among men since its peak in 1990 and by 26%among women since its peak in 2002, the report found.

The report also found that,as of 2017, the death rate for female breast cancer fell 40% since its peak in1989. The death rate for prostate cancer fell by 52% since 1993, the death ratefor colorectal cancer among men fell by 53% since 1980 and the death rate forcolorectal cancer among women fell by 57% since 1969.

10.How to Avoid 4 Leadership Blindspots and Save Yourself from Yourself

  • Publishedon January 3, 2020

Associate Professor & Associate Directorof the Practice of Managerial Studies at Va… See More

Weall have blind spots. These are things that others know about you, but aboutwhich you are completely clueless. They can be small things…

  • A stain on your shirt that everyone sees – except you.

  • A conversation that you arrive late to and say something out of place. Everyone knows the arc of the discussion – except you.

  • A mispronounced word when speaking a foreign language. Everyone correctly says it – except you.

Ifyou survived your teenage years, you’ve no doubt had at least one of theseexperiences. You might be embarrassed when the blind spot is revealed; however,the damage is typically not too significant – at least in the long-run.

Onthe other hand, if you are in a leadership role, some of these blind spots canbe particularly costly. They can impact your professional reputation,performance, and organizational results.

In1955, American psychologists Joseph Luft and Harrington Ingham created theJohari window to help us better understand how we interact with others. Theytaught us four areas: open, hidden, unknown, and blind spots.

Open: Known to youand others (e.g., a certain skill, work experience, etc.)

Hidden: Known toyou, but unknown to others (e.g., an insecurity, unrevealed feeling, etc.)

Unknown: Neitherknown to you or others (e.g., a bias that you have yet to discover, a fear thatyou haven’t uncovered, a capability that you never had reason to know youpossessed)

Blind: Known toothers, but not known to you. These are blind spots.

Thereare many potential blind spots, but I find these four are particularlypervasive and costly. Each is based on a specific assumption. Are you fallingprey to any of these?

1.Assuming People Know the Goals

Researchsuggests that only 15% of people can actually name their leaders’ mostimportant goals. But, many leaders assume everyone knows what’s most important.

Ionce worked with a client who swore all of his employees knew the top goal andchallenged me to prove him wrong. The next day I presented a list of 23different goals that his employees said were most important. All 23 stemmedfrom the leader. Although the leader saw himself as the goal-oriented,visionary-type, they felt he hadn’t met an idea that he didn’t like. Considerthese questions:

  • What are the 1-3 most important goals for your team or organization?

  • Do your people know the goals?

  • How do you know they know them?

2.Assuming People Know What They Should Do

Clarifyingand communicating a goal is critical, but insufficient. Employees also need tounderstand how their work connects to the stated goals. Assuming peopleunderstand the connection, or that a connection exists at all, is anotherleadership blind spot.

Whenyou assume people know what to do, you may walk out of your meetings askingeach other questions like, “That sounds like a great idea, but what can wedo to impact that goal?” In these instances, people don’t feel empowered;they feel abandoned. Consider these questions:

  • Do your people know what they can do to accomplish the goals?

  • Do they understand how their daily work drives goal accomplishment?

3.Assuming You Know How to Best Do Your Employees’ Jobs

Sometimesa leader assumes that he or she knows best how to accomplish the goal. Theleader both tells the people the goal and how to do it. Unlike the abandonmentissue above, these leaders are micromanaging. The leader assumes he is beinghelpful, but the people simply believe that they are not trusted. Of course,this is a bad situation, but it’s even worse if the leader doesn’t really knowhow best to do the task.

  • Do you ask your people how they might choose to go about accomplishing the goals?

  • Are you too directive?

  • Could you be violating the concept that involvement breeds commitment.

4.Assuming You Know What Your People Find Motivating

Differentthings motivate people. What one might consider a reward, another thinks is farfrom positive recognition. Some leaders assume that if they personally findsomething motivating that their people will feel the same.

Bemindful that a financial reward isn’t too motivating if the employees simplywant a few extra hours of free time. Most of your folks already have enought-shirts and coffee mugs. Moreover, a pat on the back or a hand written note issometimes reward enough. If you really want to know what motivates your people,don’t assume, ask.

  • How effective have your last reward/incentive programs been?

  • Do you know what truly motivates your people?

  • When was the last time you asked them?

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Jointhe 99,500+ who follow Dr. Patrick Leddin on LinkedIn. Just click ‘follow’ nextto his name to gain access to all of his leadership insights. Leading otherscan be tough. Great ideas make it a bit easier!

@linkedineditors

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Associate Professor & Associate Directorof the Practice of Managerial Studies at Vanderbilt University, Public Speaker

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