Topley’s Top Ten – November 18, 2019

Author

Matt Topley
November 18, 2019

1.Investors have Sold $230 Billion in Shares this Year Amid a 20% Rise in Global Markets

That said, Citi Says Next Leg inBull Market Coming as Outflows Turn Around – Investors have sold a net $230billion in shares this year amid a 20% rise in a gauge of global stocks – That has onlyhappened twice before and when the trend reversed, inflows helped spur another20% gain over the next year, they said.  “November is on track to be thefirst month of inflows into emerging and developed market equities funds in twoyears,” the Citi team wrote. “If they continue, this could add further momentumto the rally.”

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

2.This Bull Markets Gain Still Well Short of 1990’s Internet Bubble.

Below-Average Bull Market

Posted November 13, 2019 by Joshua M Brown

My Chart o’ the Day comes from LPL’s Ryan Detrick, who notesthat:

Many consider this bull marketthe greatest ever, given it has incredibly lasted more than 10 years. But interms of magnitude, many would be surprised to hear that the 357% gain duringthis bull market is still beneath the record 417% gain seen during the 1990s.

This bull market also isn’tthe strongest in history in terms of gains, even though it has lasted longerthan any other bull market…On an annualized return basis, this bull market hasgained 15.3%, which is actually weaker than the average bull market annualizedgain of 18.9%.

3.U.S. Equity Ending 10 Year Cycle of Outperformance Vs. International Stocks?

So why is this topic even of interest anyway, andwhy now? The chart below shows the relative price performance of USequities vs global ex-US (emerging and developed ex-US). The chart showsthere are clear (circa-10 year) cycles of relative outperformance vsunderperformance, and right now it looks like we are nearing the end of another10-year cycle of outperformance…

4.MJ-Weed ETF Breaks Thru 2016 Lows.

5.The Holy-Cow Moment for Subprime Auto Loans; Serious Delinquencies Blow Out

by Wolf Richter • Nov 13,2019 • 175 Comments • Email to a friend

But it’s even worse than it looks. And this time, there isno jobs crisis. This time, it’s the result of greed by subprime lenders. 

Serious auto-loan delinquencies – auto loans that are 90 days ormore past due – in the third quarter of 2019, after an amazing trajectory,reached a historic high of $62 billion, according to data from the New York Fed today:

This $62 billion of seriously delinquent loan balances are whatauto lenders, particularly those that specialize in subprime auto loans, suchas Santander Consumer USA, Credit Acceptance Corporation, and many smaller specializedlenders are now trying to deal with. If they cannot cure the delinquency,they’re hiring specialized companies that repossess the vehicles to be sold atauction. The difference between the loan balance and the proceeds from theauction, plus the costs involved, are what a lender loses on the deal.

The repo business, however, is booming.

6. 8 life events millennials are putting off longer than their parents because they can’t afford it

Nov 16, 2019,12:15 PM

7.U.S.Trade in Goods Balance.

8.The State Of The Subscription Economy, 2018

LouisColumbus Contributor

Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributorsare their own.

These and many other insights are from an in-depth surveyMcKinsey & Company completedto better understand the dynamics of the subscription e-commerce market and itsmajor trends. The results of the survey, Thinking inside the subscriptionbox: New research on e-commerce consumers are a fascinating glimpseinto the current state of the subscription economy. McKinsey’s research teaminterviewed 5,093 U.S.-based respondents, 4,057 of which were online shopperswho had spent at least $25 online in the past month. For additional details onthe methodology, please see the study here.A PDF of the study is availablehere (9 pp., registration on site required).

Key takeaways from the study include the following:

  • 15% of online shoppers have subscribed to an e-commerce service over the past year, with 46% of respondents subscribed to an online streaming-media service including NetFlix. Subscription-box services that deliver products regularly include Blue Apron, Dollar Shave Club, Ipsy and Stitch Fix. Subscription-based media includes Amazon Prime Video, ClassPass, Hulu, Netflix, Spotify, and others.

Forming AFoundation: My Life As A First-Gen Military Child

  • Women account for 60% of subscriptions, and men are more likely to have three or more active subscriptions. The median number of subscriptions an active subscriber has is two, and nearly 35% have three or more. Men are more likely than women to have three or more active subscriptions (42% versus 28%) suggesting that men value automated purchasing to save time by reducing store trips.

  • 55% of all subscriptions are curation-based, making this category the most dominant in the 2018 subscription economy. Curation-based subscriptions’ dominance reflects online customers’ demand for a continued series of personalized, high-quality experiences.Replenishment-based subscriptions account for 32% and access subscriptions, 13%

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9.Do Ridesharing Services Increase Alcohol Consumption?

University of Louisville – College of Business – Department of Economics

University of Louisville

Georgia State University

There are 2 versions of this paper

Do Ridesharing Services Increase Alcohol Consumption?

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 13 Nov 2019

You are currently viewing this paper

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Andrew Young School of Policy Studies Research PaperSeries No. 19-23

Number of pages: 43 Posted: 12 Nov 2019

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Date Written: November 7, 2019

Abstract

Recent studies show ridesharing services, such as Uber and Lyft, reduceintoxicated driving. However, ridesharing may also have negative health effectsby increasing alcohol consumption. In this paper, we directly examine theeffect of ridesharing on drinking activity. Our approach leverages variation inthe existence and entry timing of Uber’s taxi-like service, UberX, across theUnited States. Using self-reported measures of alcohol consumption, we estimatethat UberX is associated with a 3.1% increase in the average number of drinksconsumed per day, a 2.8% increase in number of drinking days per month, a 4.9%increase in the maximum number of drinks consumed on one occasion, and a 9%increase in the prevalence of heavy drinking. When we focus on areas withrelatively weaker public transit options, we estimate UberX is associated witha 17.5% to 21.8% increase in instances of binge drinking. Using administrativedata, we support our findings by showing that UberX is associated with a 2.4%increase in employment and a 2.3% increase in total earnings at drinkingestablishments. Our results imply that the net social impact of ridesharing ismore complicated than the existing literature and policy debates suggest.

Keywords: Ridesharing, Uber, Alcohol Consumption, Binge Drinking,Drinking Places

JEL Classification: I12, I18, D12, L83,L91, R41

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation 

Burgdorf, Jacob and Lennon, Conor and Teltser, Keith, DoRidesharing Services Increase Alcohol Consumption? (November 7, 2019).Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3484845 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3484845

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10.Five Reasons to Get Out of Your Comfort Zone

Improveyour happiness and health by taking a new look at your personality.

They callit a comfort zone for a reason. There is definitely comfort in having a lifethat is predictable and without unpleasant surprises. There is also comfort inhaving steady routines that you follow day in and day out, and from year toyear as you go through the ebbs and flows of the seasons.

Peoplewho know you won’t call you at 7 p.m., because they know, with certainty,that you’ve just sat down to eat dinner. They also know what to get you for abirthday gift, because your preferences for clothes, wine, or even store giftcards are so well-established. As it turns out, though, treading the “straight and narrow” pathway may not be all thatbeneficial to your well-being. Even if you never actually change thosereassuring routines, just contemplating a break in your patterns can be ofvalue.

Peoplemay gravitate toward steady routines for a number of reasons, but one of themost probable has to do with personality. The Five-Factor Model proposes that the qualityof “openness to experience” isone of the basic building blocks of personality, influencing whether you’rewilling to contemplate new ideas, explore new opportunities, try out newcultural experiences, question your values from time to time, and take the timeto explore your feelings. Although openness to experience is somewhat the poorstep-child of the Five-Factor Model, paling in comparison to popular favorites,such as introversion/extraversion and neuroticism, there is now increasing evidence of itsimportance in overall psychological health.

In onerecent study by the National University of Ireland’s Anna Soye and PáraicO’Súilleabháin (2019), a sample of 77 women ages 18-25 were subjected totwo different stress-producing conditions while their blood pressure and heartrate were monitored. In the active stress condition, participants had theunusual task of speaking as loud as possible into a camcorder about wordspresented to them on a screen. In the passive stress condition, they wererequired to watch the recorded videos as they performed this task.

Previousresearch has actually revealed both of these conditions to producecardiovascular stress responses. The findings showed that women highest inopenness to feelings were most likely to show elevated stress reactions, butonly in the acute stress condition. Across the passive stresscondition, these highly open individuals actually recovered more successfully.In other words, being willing to explore your feelings might help you becomebetter able to adapt to stressful situations.

Opennessto experience as a personality trait may also benefit your longevity. YannickStephan of the University of Montpellier (France) and colleagues(2019) examined data from a large U.S. sample initially including over 10,000adults and followed them for 8 to 20 years. Participants completedmeasures of Five-Factor personality traits, along with self-reportmeasures of physical activity and subjective age (calculated bysubtracting self-rated age from actual age and dividing by actual age).

The finalstatistical model in the Stephan et al. study revealed the beneficial effectsof physical activity on subjective age, via a route through openness toexperience. In other words, as the authors concluded: “A physically activelifestyle contributes to feeling younger, in part because of the personalityand health benefits of such a lifestyle” (p. 7).

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Otherresearch shows that being open to experience can also boost your creativity. In the “Big Two” model of personality, thefive factors break down into plasticity (openness and extraversion) andstability (low neuroticism, agreeableness, and conscientiousness) (Feist, 2019). Supportingthis concept, Angelina Sutin et al. (2019) showed positive relationshipsbetween openness and verbal fluency, another indicator of cognitive functioningrelated to creativity. People high in openness may even have more gray matterin the brain (cortical thickness), as observed by Defence Research andDevelopment Canada’s Oshin Vartanian and colleagues (2019).

Thisresearch leads right into the Openness-Fluid-Crystallized-Intelligence (OFCI) model (Ziegler et al., 2018).The OFCI model proposes that people higher in personality openness also havemore varied interests and improved ability to assess situations, strengths thatare reflected in higher scores on measures of intelligence as they developthrough adulthood. More openness, this model proposes, leads to more “learningopportunities,” which in turn stimulates the cognitive processes that underlieintelligence.

Withthese findings in mind, then, here are the five reasons you need to open yourown personality as well as your routines to stretch your own comfort zone,bit by bit:

1.Improve your heart health. Giving yourself that extra emotional push frombeing willing to look at your feelings in a range of situations can wake yourcardiovascular system enough to learn to adapt to real stress.

2. Feelyounger. When you are open to new experiences, you freshen yourperspective. It’s especially useful if you adopt this perspective inre-examining whether you can squeeze in more time forexercise, rather than sticking to your tried-and-true excuse that you’re toobusy (hint: most people aren’t).

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3. Expandyour verbal horizons. Research showing the relationship between verbalfluency and personality openness highlights the value of adopting amentally flexible approach to life.

4. Becomemore creative. Feeling “stuck” is one of the chief reasons why peoplefeel their creativity is stifled. By being willing to consider new ideas andapproaches, you can think yourself out of that constraining mental box.

5.Strengthen your intelligence. As the OFCI model proposes, people higher inpersonality openness get more out of their experiences, allowing them to expandtheir intelligence more than their comfort zone-loving age peers.

You maybe wondering how to go about making these transformations, now that you knowwhy it’s worth doing so. The answer is to look at personality openness as alearnable skill. Train yourself to look in new ways at your world, yourfeelings, and even your most cherished daily schedules by taking off yourstraight and narrow blinders.

To sumup, fulfillment in life can come from the sources of comfort you’ve grownto love, but as the research on personality openness shows, some stretching ofthat comfort zone can enrich your life even more.

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