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- Topley’s Top Ten – November 22, 2019
Topley’s Top Ten – November 22, 2019
Matt Topley
November 22, 2019
1. Vanguard vs. The World
2. This chart shows how Vanguard’s explosive growth has ‘taken on a life of its own’
Yusuf KhanNov. 22, 2019, 05:47 AM
The OECD on Thursday released a warning to the global economy — GDP growth is going to drop, and it’s up to governments to stop fighting to fix it.
In a statement, the OECD said that world GDP growth this year is expected to fall to 2.9%, “its lowest annual rate since the financial crisis,” and is expected to hover at that level in 2020 and 2021.
The OECD highlighted the US-China trade war as the reason for this decline.
3. Odds of A China Trade Deal.
Never saw this chart but odds fading that Trump gets dealdone before election.
Zero Hedge
by Calculated Risk on 11/21/201907:10:00 PM
From MatthewGraham at MortgageNewsDaily: Mortgage Rates Steady Despite Bond Market Weakness
Mortgage ratesspent a 2nd day with the average lender holding relatively steady. This followsa decent winning streak over the previous week and a half with the net effectbeing at least an eighth of a percent (.125%) improvement on the averageconventional 30yr fixed quote.Holding steady was a bit anticlimactic yesterday because the broader bondmarket (specifically, the benchmark US 10yr Treasury yield) indicated moreimprovement than we actually saw. That had a lot to do with theunderperformance of bonds that specifically underlie mortgages (MBS or “mortgage-backedsecurities). But whereas MBS lagged Treasuries yesterday, they outperformedtoday, thus allowing lenders to keep rates unchanged even as 10yr yields movedmoderately higher. [Today’s Most Prevalent Rates For Top Tier Scenarios 30YRFIXED – 3.75%]
4. Mortgage Rates Stayed Above 2016 Lows Despite Bond Action
by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2019 07:10:00 PM From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Mortgage Rates Steady Despite Bond Market Weakness
Mortgage rates spent a 2nd day with the average lender holding relatively steady. This follows a decent winning streak over the previous week and a half with the net effect being at least an eighth of a percent (.125%) improvement on the average conventional 30yr fixed quote. Holding steady was a bit anticlimactic yesterday because the broader bond market (specifically, the benchmark US 10yr Treasury yield) indicated more improvement than we actually saw. That had a lot to do with the underperformance of bonds that specifically underlie mortgages (MBS or “mortgage-backed securities). But whereas MBS lagged Treasuries yesterday, they outperformed today, thus allowing lenders to keep rates unchanged even as 10yr yields moved moderately higher. [Today’s Most Prevalent Rates For Top Tier Scenarios 30YR FIXED – 3.75%] This graph from Mortgage News Daily shows mortgage rates since 2014. This graph is interactive, and you could view mortgage rates back to the mid-1980s – click here for graph.
5. The Fed Slaps Down Negative Interest Rates
byWolf Richter • Nov 20, 2019 • 82 Comments
A serious rejection in its first major discussion of negativeinterest rates recounted in the FOMC minutes.
The minutes for the FOMC meeting on October 29-30, released today,shed some light on the laundry list of discussions arising out of the Fed’scurrent review of monetary policy strategy, where it tries to figure out how toline up the tools to be used during the next crisis, and which tools to lineup.
All kinds of tools are being kicked around in addition to thetools used during the last crisis – these potential new tools ranged from “ratecaps” on long-term Treasury securities to various repo facilities and negativeinterest rates.
But one potential tool was rejected by “all participants”:negative interest rates.
And the Fed had a lot to say about negative interest rates andtheir drawbacks for the US. This is the first time that a detailed discussionof negative interest rates – with pros and cons – were referenced in the minutes – showing how controversial thattopic has become among central banks globally. You can essentially see theFed’s distaste for them in the US.
In the quote below from the minutes, the paragraphdivisions and bullet points are mine to make the pathologically long paragraphsof the minutes, which are purposefully designed to not be read by humans, morereadable for humans:
“The briefing also discussed negative interest rates, a policyoption implemented by several foreign central banks. The staff noted thatalthough the evidence so far suggested that this tool had providedaccommodation in jurisdictions where it had been employed, there were alsoindications of possible adverse side effects.
“Moreover, differences between the U.S. financial system and thefinancial systems of those jurisdictions suggested that the foreign experiencemay not provide a useful guide in assessing whether negative rates would beeffective in the United States.
“All participants judged that negative interest rates currentlydid not appear to be an attractive monetary policy tool in the United States.
“Participants commented
That there was limited scope to bring the policy rate into negative territory,
That the evidence on the beneficial effects of negative interest rates abroad was mixed,
And that it was unclear what effects negative rates might have on the willingness of financial intermediaries to lend and on the spending plans of households and businesses.
“Participants noted that negative interest rates would entailrisks of introducing significant complexity or distortions to the financialsystem.
6. Micro Businesses
Micro businesses (one to nine employees): Business administration and support services rank 1st
The industry with the greatest number of micro businesses are found within the professional, scientific and technical sector. 451,740 micro businesses are currently in operation, having been set up in the past decade. Of those businesses, 117,110 have successfully stood the test of time and surviving 10 years or more.
The Most Popular Industry Sectors For Successful StartupBusinesses
7. Generics wait years for Medicare coverage
Marisa Fernandez1 hour ago
Adapted from The Association for Accessible Medicines analysis;Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios
Medicare is taking yearslonger than private insurance to cover some generic drugs, meaning seniorscould be paying more for their prescriptions, according to Access forAffordable Medicines, a lobbying group for the generic drug industry.
Between thelines: A 2017 policy change made the distinction between generics andbrand-name drugs unclear, forcing the two types to compete within the sameformulary tiers, Bloomberg notes.
Yes, but: TheCenters for Medicare and Medicaid Services has argued this policy keeps Medicare premiums down byencouraging flexibility in the plan’s design and increasing negotiatingleverage with drugmakers, Axios’ Marisa Fernandez writes.
Godeeper: The downside of cheap generics
8. Rituals and Routines
Posted November 21, 2019 by Ben Carlson
DanaCavalea became the strength and conditioning coach for the New York Yankees atthe tender age of 23.
He quickly learned professional athleteswho play more than 30 pre-season games, 162 regular-season games, and potentiallydozens of more games in the playoffs need to have a structured routine in placein order to succeed.
In his book, Habits of a Champion, Cavalea described a typical day inthe life of a Major League Baseball player:
For8 months out of the year, you’re doing nothing but playing baseball.
Workdaysconsist of sleeping in until 11 am or noon.
By3-4 pm, you’re expected to be at the “office”.
Soakfor 20 minutes in the hot tub to loosen up.
Yourclothes are washed and ready to go when you arrive.
Personalizedstretch and workout from the strength and conditioning coach for around 40minutes.
Grabsomething to eat.
Headout to the field to stretch some more.
Battingpractice and throw some balls.
Pre-gamemeal.
Stretchyet again.
Playthe game which can last anywhere from 3-4 hours.
Post-gamecold tub, shower and eat (likely at a world-class restaurant).
Goto bed well after midnight.
Wakeup the next day and do it all over again.
Whenwe had him on our podcast recently, I asked Coach Cavalea if the playersever needed to spice things up to add some variety to this routine. He rightlycorrected me that I was looking at this the wrong way:
VideoPlayer
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Beyondthe typical gameday schedule, each player had their own personal workouts andmethods within that routine. Cavalea explained how Mariano Rivera, arguably thegreatest closer of all-time, had the same exact warm-up routine during everysingle game:
But what many do not know about theSandman is that two innings before heading out to the bullpen, he was on hisback, listening to salsa music, getting stretched and massaged by yours truly.Every, single, game. When that 5th inning came around, if I didn’t have hisgreen tea and a granola bar waiting, he was not a happy man. Screaming my namelike a lunatic throughout the clubhouse. He was consistent, and heexpected consistency. That was his method.
The tolerance for repetition here is astounding.
This is going to sound like a ridiculoushumblebrag but here I go…
Last week I was talking to a colleague whoasked what I do to stay in shape. When I described my workout routine oflifting weights 2-3 times a week and a combination of running/cardio on theother days he was less than blow away. “That’s it?” was the general takeaway.
When I thought about this some more Irealized the workout routine itself isn’t what has allowed me to put off thedad-bod all these years. It’s the fact that I’ve been consistently liftingweights and working out since I was 16 years old. I’ve basically been going tothe gym on a consistent basis for more than 20 years.
The consistency of working out hasmattered much more than the actual workout itself (which has varied as I’vegotten older).
Consistency is the driving force behindcompounding.
Cavalea wrote, “Consistency over timeyields positive results” but he also said, “Unsuccessful people are consistenttoo.” The difference is unsuccessful people don’t have a routine.
The post Topley’s Top Ten – November 22, 2019 appeared first on View From The Top.