Topley’s Top Ten – October 30, 2019

Author

Matt Topley
October 30, 2019

1.S&P 500 43% of Revenue is Non-U.S.

www.dorseywright.com Nasdaq Dorsey Wright.

2.ECB Balance Sheet Growth Rise from 2015.

Shortly before the restart of the QE program,the ECB’s balance sheet shrinks again. Total assets fell by €6.2bn to €4,681bnas QE redemptions > QE reinvestments and as bonds from Trichet’s SMP programhave matured. ECB balance sheet now equals to 40.5% of EZ GDP vs Fed’s 18.6%

3.Europe Technicals.

From JoshBrown

Next Level 2018 Highs.

4.China Bad Loans Mount.

China’s Biggest Banks Prepare for Hard Times-Bloomberg.

Top banks report quarterly profit growth between 3% and 6%

Chinese economyexpanded at slowest pace since early 1990s

5.Leading and Lagging Groups Since the July High

Oct 29, 2019

With the S&P 500 finally taking outits July high on Monday, there has been a lot of movement below the surface interms of leading and lagging groups.  In fact, 18 groups within theS&P 500 are up over 5% since the last high back in July while 13 are downover 5%.  In the table below, we list the best and worst-performing groupssince the 7/26 closing high.  To make the list, each group had to eitherbe up or down 2%.

On the upside, leadership has beenspread across a variety of sectors.  Leading the way higher, Tech Hardware(think Apple) has rallied over 17% and with an overall weight in the index ofnearly 4%, this group has been a key leader of the market.  The only othergroup up over 15% is Household Durables (homebuilders), which has a muchsmaller weight in the S&P 500.  Behind these two groups, another five– Multiline Retail, Construction Materials, Construction & Engineering,Biotech, and Trading Companies –  have seen double-digit gains since thelate July high.  The fact that the seven groups with the strongest gainscome from five different sectors suggests that the rally isn’t especiallynarrow, even if the percentage of stocks hitting new highs has been lacking.

On the downside, Leisure Equipment andProducts has been the worst performing group in the S&P 500 with a declineof 21.9%.  The weakness in this group, though, is 100% attributable toHasbro (HAS), which is the only stock in the group (hence its 0.1% weight inthe S&P 500).  Behind Leisure, Communications Equipment has droppedmore than 14% driven by weakness in Cisco (CSCO).  Finally, what would alist of losers be without a group from the Energy sector?

What’s most interesting about this listis that even as the market has been essentially flat over the last threemonths, there’s been a lot of dispersion in performance – not just within themarket, but also within sectors. Take the Consumer Discretionary sector, forexample. While five of the sector’s groups are on the list of best performerssince the 7/26 high, there are also five on the list of biggestlosers.  Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional forfull access to some of the most sought after research on the street, includingour Trend Analyzer tool.

6.U.S. Households Own Less Individual Stocks and More Funds.

From BarryRitholtz on Twitter

7.Another Look at 3 Fed Cuts.

Wall Street is bracing for what seems almostassuredly to be a third interest rate cut in as many meetings of the FederalReserve on Wednesday afternoon.

Andalthough there may be some trepidation about policy makers delivering anotherdose of monetary easing to a stock market that is at or near records, historyshows that the market tends to extend its gains after three successiveinterest-rate cuts of a quarter percentage point, according to data from LPLFinancial (see chart below).

Mark DeCambre

Here’show the stock market tends to perform after the Fed cuts interest rates 3 timesin a row

 Third time’s a charm for Wall Street, with theS&P 500 surging 10% after three straight interest rates cuts

8.Smartphone Ownership by Teens.

Morning Brew

9.State of Health Report Shows Growing Despair Among American Men

Alex Tanzi

BloombergOctober 30, 2019

View photos

(Bloomberg)— Explore what’s moving the global economy in the new season of theStephanomics podcast. Subscribe via Pocket Cast or iTunes.

Signs ofdeclining health for American men abound in the National Center for HealthStatistics latest annual report.

Lifeexpectancy at birth for males declined to 76.1 years in 2017 from 76.5 in 2014,according to the data. At age 65, men are projected to live another 18.1 yearscompared with 20.6 years for women.

These andother takeaways from the annual report, which tracks the health ofthe U.S. population across different metrics, have implications for productivity,wages, and the broader economy.

Here aresome other highlights from the report released on Oct. 30.

LifeExpectancy

Lifeexpectancy has been falling across demographics in America. The estimates forwhites, blacks and Hispanics fell to 78.5, 74.9 and 81.8 respectively by 2017,after having peaked in 2012 or 2014 for those groups.

The declinein life expectancy is occurring in part due to deaths from despair. From 2007to 2017, the mortality rate from drug overdoses increased 82%, to 21.7 deaths from11.9 per 100,000. Over the same 10-year period, suicide rates increased 24%, to14.0 deaths from 11.3 per 100,000 resident population.

Males hadtwice the female drug overdose death rate in 2017 and rates for men havevirtually doubled since 2007. The recent increases were especially pronouncedamong men aged 25–34 and 35–44, the report shows.

While drugoverdose rates per 100,000 are considerably lower for females, in recent yearsyounger age groups have seen a marked increase. The drug overdose death rateincreased around 17% per year among females aged 15–34 years.

Suicidesamong Americans have also increased sharply — from 26,869 in 1980 to 47,173 in2017. In 2017, it was the second leading cause of death, behind accidents,for young age groups — 10–14, 15–19, and 20–24 — and it reached a recordhigh, with younger males in particular strongly impacted.

Poor Health

10.Stuck In a Rut? Here Are 15 Ways to Pull Yourself Out of a Bad Situation.

  • Published onOctober 17, 2019

John RamptonEntrepreneur

Self-indulgenceand pity parties are not suitable for your business. The good news is thatthere are always options to regain your motivation and passion. Here are 15 of my favoritetechniques.

1.Focus only on your main goal.

Asan entrepreneur, you have plenty of things to do and a million ideas goingthrough your head. That’s just part of the job. Most of us thrive in this typeof environment. At the same time, this can drain both your energy andmotivation.

As Leo Babauta correctly writes, “You cannot maintain energyand focus (the two most important things in accomplishing a goal) if you aretrying to do two or more goals at once.” The solution? Pick “one goal, for now,and focus on it completely.”

Personally,I would start with your meatiest goal and save the rest for later. If you’redeciding between several different options, zone in on the one that relates toyour top priorities and make sure that it’s a SMART goal. Once you choose tofocus on that goal, put the goal in writing and develop a realistic actionplan with steps to achieve it.

2.Find out how you’re spending your time.

Frommy experience, if you want to manage your time more effectively, then you needto find out you’re spending your time. You can do so by writing down all ofyour work and non-work activities for at least a week. Take note of how longeach entry takes you to complete so you have a better idea of where yourtime is going. You can also use time tracking apps to assist you.

Whatexactly does checking the time have to do with motivation? If you notice thatyou spend too much time on unproductive activities, like watching TV orbrowsing your social channels, when do you have time to reach your goal?For example, if you wanted to improve your writing skills because youeventually want to author a book, then wasting your time on TV won’t motivateyou to reach this goal.

Instead,you can reduce the amount of TV you watch and spend that time on thingsthat will motivate you. Write, read, talk to other writers or create amore optimal workspace.

3.Come on, get happy.

“Motivationhappens when your dopamine spikes, because you anticipate something important,is about to happen,” says Kevan Lee, VP of Marketing at Buffer. The good newsis that the “brain can be trained to feed off of bursts of dopamine sparked byrewarding experiences,” such as setting incremental goals.

Youcan also hack your brain to get dopamine following by:

  • Recording small accomplishments.

  • Sharing results with others like your team or family.

  • Establishing micro-deadlines to keep you on track.

  • Eating foods like yogurt, almonds, fruits and vegetables, eggs, and salmon.

  • Taking a 10-minute nap.

  • Making the right brain/left brain switch.

  • Moving, even if it’s just a short walk, midday.

4.Strike a pose.

AsAmy Cuddy, a professor at the Harvard School of Business, explained duringa TED Talk in 2012, body language can shape who we are. Forexample, when we’re in a low-power pose, such as slouching or bunching up, wefeel powerless. On the flip side, a high-power pose like stretching out andmaking a V with your arms does the opposite.

Thereason is that the pose increases testosterone, which boosts confidence. Italso lowers cortisol, which is associated with stress. So, the next time youneed a shot in the arm, strike a power pose. Of course, if you don’t want tofeel embarrassed, do this when you’re alone.

5.Develop a pre-game routine.

James Clear,who played baseball for 17 years, developed a pre-game routine “that allowed meto perform well, regardless of whether I was motivated or not.”

Here’swhat his pre-game routine looked like:

Grab a baseball and myglove. Jog out to the outfield foul pole. Jog across along the outfield wall.Stop at the opposite foul pole. Stretch hips and hamstrings. Jog back along theoutfield wall. Toss lightly, working back to 75 feet or so. Head to the bullpen.Stand one step behind the mound and toss three or four times from there to thecatcher. Step up onto the mound. Toss a few pitches without going into the fullwindup. Start throwing from the windup for 10 pitches or so. Throw from thestretch for 10 pitches or so. Finish with one of each pitch (change up,curveball, fastball in, fastball out). Walk to the dugout.

Thisroutine took no more than 25 minutes. Besides getting him physically warmed up,it also got him in “the correct mental state to compete at a high level.” Youcan use a similar technique as well whenever you need to get motivated. Thefirst step is to make sure that the routine is incredibly easy to start so thatthere are no excuses.

Ifyou are headed into a workout, fill-up your water bottle before you start.The next step is to make sure that the routine pushes you closer to a goal.And, the third step is to stick with the same pattern every time you needthe motivation quickly. Don’t delay when you feel yourself slipping.

Whatcan you do for yourself to put yourself back in the motivation-mood? What hashelped you before? If you are struggling, make a list of what has helped youbefore and keep it with you. What will you take and form as part of apersonal-pick-me-up-routine when you feel low? Never let a slump stick andremember that it’s easier to stay up than to pick yourself up. 

6.Set the bar low.

Whenyou feel so unmotivated that you’re anxious or overwhelmed, don’t allowyourself to become paralyzed. Sometimes, setting small and specific goals canget you out of your little funk. Instead of focusing on your book, write asentence, and then another. If that’s all you do, then it’s enough. Small isbetter than nothing.

But,you may be surprised that just jotting down a couple of words encourages you tokeep on writing.

7.Overcome your fear(s).

Youmay try to put on a strong facade, but we all have fears. Sometimes personaldismay is so severe that it can stun our motivation. So, how can you overcomeyour fears? First, you need to identify your concern and give it a name. A nameis beneficial to get whatever is bothering you out in the open. Next, questionthis fear. You may notice that it’s ridiculous or something that can be easilyconquered.

Mostimportantly, take a small risk to squash it. For instance, if you’re afraid ofyour business failing, don’t overreact by quitting your job and investing allof your savings into your new venture. Work on your new venture on the side tosee if it’s profitable; then, you can take that more significant leap. If not,then at least you didn’t lose everything. Always take a close look when you arefeeling uncomfortable.

8.Reward yourself.

Aswritten in The 100 Simple Secrets of SuccessfulPeople, “Researchers find that perceived self-interest, therewards one believes are at stake, is the most significant factor in predictingdedication and satisfaction toward work. It accounts for about 75 percent ofpersonal motivation toward accomplishment.” So, go ahead and treat yourselfwhenever you cross something off your to-do-list or reached a milestone.Eventually, these small wins lead to a winning streak where we want tore-experience how great it felt to succeed.

9.Practice positive self-talk.

“Positiveself-talk is a surefire way to boost your confidence levels quickly,” writesRose Leadem in an article for Calendar. “However,how you positively self-talk matters too.”

Accordingto one study, “people who talk to themselves positively in thesecond person (using ‘you’) reported higher levels of motivation and confidencethan people who spoke to themselves in the first person (‘I’).” Researchersbelieve that “this is because addressing yourself in the second person, makesit feel like you are receiving external appreciation and confirmation.”

10.The fresh start effect.

Accordingto “the fresh-start effect,” people are more likely to take actiontoward a goal after temporal landmarks that represent newbeginnings. Psychologists believe this works because these specialoccasions or temporal landmarks force us to reflect on the big picture. As aresult, it inspires us to take action — specifically set goals and change ourbehavior.

Thething is, you don’t have to wait until January 1 for a fresh start. You canhave a new beginning at any time, any day, and any minute. For example, if youwant to write more, then you could compose a note explaining why you want towrite more and the baby step, you need to take to make this a reality.

11.Have someone hold you accountable.

Atthe end of the day, you need to be accountable for your own actions.But sometimes, you can use a little nudge to regain your motivation. For example,I used to go to the gym with a friend. As our schedules changed, we could nolonger exercise at the same time. Without someone to push me, I stopped going.Now, I have a new partner in crime.

WheneverI don’t feel like it, he encourages me to get off my butt and get to the gym. Ialso return the favor when he’s not motivated. If you don’t have that person,keep looking for someone to help you with your goals. Sometimes getting to thegym is where you will find someone to be a workout partner. Ask individuals atwork or other groups you are involved with, but don’t stop reaching out.

12.Focus on positive outcomes.

Asopposed to obsessing about what may go wrong or how hard it is to complete agoal, write down at least three positive outcomes of achieving your goal. Itmay sound simple, but it’s an excellent way for you to focus on what you enjoydoing and how it will be beneficial in the end.

13.Tap into your bigger purpose.

Whenyou look at the bigger picture, something amazing happens. You realize thatwhatever you’re working on is more important than you. Take your business as anexample. It’s helping your community by providing jobs, as well as solving apain point for customers. If you’re giving back, it may even make the worldjust a slightly better place. We all have to make sense of the bigger pictureand our bigger purpose

14.Get some more green into your life.

Variouscolors impact our psychology. For example, red is associated with passion,strength and danger. Blue sends off authentic and peaceful vibes. But, ifyou want to spark creativity, motivation, and energy, surround yourself withthe color green.

Iwouldn’t recommend painting the walls of your office green. But, you could gooutside and walk in a nearby park when you’re in a slump. Researchers believe this is because it makes us think ofgrowth. Think plants and surround yourself with many live and growing things athome and in the office. Hanging photos of outdoor beauty can make a bigdifference, as well.

15.Find inspiration daily.

Nomatter how intrinsically motivated you are, there will be times when you needsome outside help. Support can be through quotes, books, TED Talks, or advice from a trusted and supportivefriend. Sometimes benefit and comfort will come from getting out of yourcomfort zone and having new experiences. Often, merely changing yourenvironment will change the outcome of emotions you’d rather not (or can’t)deal with right now.

Makeit a point to seek out inspiration every day. Not only will daily efforts keepyou motivated, but daily power-intention will also help you learn and grow as aperson.

John Rampton is an entrepreneur,investor, and startup enthusiast. He is a founder of the calendar productivitytool Calendar. You can sign up for earlyaccess to Calendar here!

This article originallyappeared on Entrepreneur.