Topley’s Top Ten – October 9, 2019

Author

Matt Topley
October 09, 2019

1.Money Market Funds +14% Year Over Year Increase.

Investors are loading up on cash. That’s not a goodsign.-By Andrea Riquier

An analysis from research firmDataTrek, drawing on fund flow data from the Investment Company Institute,shows that there was $3.4 trillion in U.S. money market funds as of October 2.That’s about 14% higher than at the end of 2018, and has risen nearly everyweek since May.

“What’s strange about this recent influx of capital is thatshort-term rates have been declining all year,” DataTrek founder Nicholas Colaswrote. Money market funds “are seeing strong inflows in 2019 even as 2-yearyields have been cut in half,” he added.

2.Inflation?  10 Year Breakeven About to Break Thru 2016 Lows.

Stock and bond markets have been sending out disinflationarysignals.

• Hereis the 10yr breakeven rate (based on inflation-linked Treasuries).

• Thischart shows the spread between stocks that rise and those that decline inresponse to higher inflation.

3.The Good News is Consumers Slashed Debt.

U.S.consumers: still an engine of growth

Written by

Russ Koesterich,CFAPortfolio Manager for BlackRock’s Global Allocation Fund

Once again, U.S. consumersare keeping the global economy out of the abyss. Russ discusses why.

August reinforced the perennial fear of this recovery:insufficient growth. While the economic data has started to stabilize, theglobal economy, particularly the manufacturing sector, remains fragile.However, for the umpteenth time this recovery, the U.S. household sectorappears to be keeping the global economy out of the abyss.  The good news:This is likely to continue.

What iskeeping the U.S. consumer thriving? I’d cite five factors.

  1. Solid income growth. Average hourly earnings are up 3.2% year-over-year. While this is modest by the standards of past recoveries, wage growth is currently at the cycle high and comfortably ahead of inflation. The combination of accelerating wage growth, solid job creation and modest inflation means that aggregate real disposable income is growing at nearly 3%.

  2. Low rates. While low interest rates are not engendering the same type of housing or refinancing boom we’ve seen in previous cycles, they are supporting the consumer in general and housing in particular. Recent months have witnessed an acceleration in home sales, an important tailwind for the broader economy.

  3. Higher savings. Unlike the previous decade, U.S. consumers are demonstrating uncharacteristic restraint.  The household savings rate is a healthy 6.2%, roughly triple the 2005 low.

  4. Households are richer. Higher savings coupled with an unusually long bull market have pushed household wealth to a record high, over $113 trillion. The current level is roughly 60% greater than it was on the cusp of the last recession.

  5. Lower and more sustainable debt levels.  Perhaps the biggest difference versus last cycle: consumers are less indebted. On the eve of the financial crisis consumers were contending with record levels of debt (see Chart 1). At its peak in 2007, household debt was more than 130% of disposable income. Today household debt is less than 100% of income. Not only are debt levels lower, but thanks to historically low yields the cost of servicing the debt is near an historic low.

4.LYFT -56% From IPO Price.

5.Global Bonds with Negative Yields 26% of Global AGG.

6.Expansions and Recessions in One Chart.

7.Eagles Tour with 46 Piece Orchestra and 22 Person Choir.

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

8.The 5 Traits of a Championship Mindset

By Trent Shelton | October7, 2019 | 3 

When I wasgrowing up, it was my dream to play in the National Football League. By thetime I was 25, the dream was over.

I hadovercome the odds. Only 1 percent of high school football players ever sniffthe pros. I made it to training camps with three different teams, and evencaught a preseason touchdown at the home stadium of the Dallas Cowboys, justhalf an hour from where I grew up in Fort Worth, Texas. But in the end itwasn’t enough.

When I wascut from the NFL for the third time, I could have pointed the finger, but I didnot. I accepted that I lost friends in my life. I accepted that it was time tomove on and take accountability for the rest of my life.

I had tocreate possibilities for myself when no one wanted to give me opportunity. Iturned my pain into progress.

“It allstarts with you,” I told myself. I have given my all to everything I have donesince, understanding the discipline, the obstacles to be overcome and themindset it would take. I had to work. I had to create possibilities for myselfwhen no one wanted to give me opportunity. I turned my pain into progress.

Leading mylife with this kind of motivation has allowed me to have a successful businessthat has changed millions of lives across the world for over a decade. Today Iam called one of the most influential speakers in the world. I’m also a husbandand a father.

I can sayI’m every bit as proud of the last 10 years as I would have been looking backon a hall of fame NFL career. The key has been five traits of a championshipmindset—five traits you can use to win in your own way.

The firstkey trait of a winning mindset is the ability to stay loyal to what you saidyou were going to do long after the mood you said it in has left you.

To staycommitted, you have to have a reason of meaning. The reason I have been soconsistent is that I made a promise to a close friend who took his own life. Ipromised him that from that day forward, I would be the “listening ear” theworld needs. That reason, that promise, is so strong. Because that promise hasa deeper meaning to me, I have stayed committed, no matter how hard it gets,and no matter what it takes.

What is yourreason? It has to mean something to you. When you have a real reason, you willnot give up.

Many peopleare more interested than they are committed. They are only interested in theirdreams, their business, in what life may look like, and they operate with thesimplicity of interest. Therefore, they are not committed to it. They made apromise to themselves with words, but a commitment is a promise to yourselfwith actions.

Commitmentshould not be just about setting a goal, but living by a standard. A goal is asomething you reach. A standard is something you live by. I map my goals usingwhat I call a 3D Roadmap: Destination, Direction, and Drive.

Destination: Set this byusing the reason for your commitment. If you do not have clarity of thatreason, you are going to live life aimlessly, and always find yourself back atstruggling with commitment.

Direction: Most peoplehave vision, but they do not know how to get where they want to go. You aretrying to find somewhere without any known point. So find a mentor, study,read, whatever it takes to get direction to get there.

Drive: Most peopledo not get to where they want to be because they do not have drive. Championshave that drive and will push to reach their destination.

Stayingcommitted means being willing to be uncomfortable. The truth is, in life youare going to be uncomfortable regardless. Outside your comfort zone is wherechange takes place, and that change leads to the next trait.

Get good atsaying no to the things that do not move you toward your yes.

In a winningmindset, you will choose to give up some things that you are used to having.You will choose to do some things that you are not used to, because it is goingto lead to something greater.

Championsare strategic in what they do as well as what they allow in their life andoutside of it. Some of the strategies around discipline may be changing yourenvironment, because it is vital in your success.

Who yousurround yourself with is what you will become. Mindsets are contagious.Evaluate your circle of people. Do you want to catch the mindsets they have?Does your environment add value or deplete from your goals? Get around peoplewho make you better. You have to put yourself in a growth environment.

How do youbuild your growth environment?

  • Remove the bad seeds. In order to level up, you have to subtract your distractions, and you know what those are. Failure to remove the root issues and dig up those bad seeds will affect you negatively. It is like cancer. In sports we used to say that if you keep even the smallest cancer on the team—a person who is negative, a person who is always complaining—then that cancer is going to spread. It is the same thing for your life. Get the mindsets away from you that do not serve and help you. Remove the people from your life who do not add value to your life. Sometimes the best way to add to your life is to subtract from it.

  • Plant new seeds. Become intentional about your life. Start putting yourself in the right environments. Develop better daily habits and routines.

  • Lastly, water those seeds. Recruit the mindsets that make you better. I purposely put myself in environments where I know that I am the least accomplished. Because I know that if I am in an environment where I am the least accomplished, I will have no choice but to grow. If there is someone that is at a higher fitness level, I make sure to spend time around that person. If there is somebody better at business than me, I spend time around that person. If there is somebody who has built a family structure that I admire, I spend time around that person.

You havedecided to commit yourself and build your growth environment; so now what? Nowyou have to apply these traits every day.

Anchor youractions in greatness so that on a daily basis you produce nothing less thanyour very best.

It is notenough to be committed and disciplined if you are not consistent. Think of aweight loss journey. You can be committed to your purpose of getting healthier,but still only work out sometimes. You can replace all the junk food in yourpantry with healthy options, but still only eat right sometimes. Sometimesmight be only when you are inspired or motivated. And sometimes is not going toget you results. Sometimes is not going to change your life. You have to showup regardless of how it feels.

I know thatsome people reading this think they are not a consistent person, but they trytheir best. The misconception is that you may think you have consistencyproblem when actually it is that you lack commitment.

You areprobably very consistent. Think about everything you have been consistent aboutwithin your everyday life. You were consistent in going to school. You havebeen consistent in going to a job every day. You have been consistent takingcare of your kids. The reason you have been consistent is that you understandthe cost if you do not show up.

Every day Iplanted seeds. Every day I trusted the process. And every day I grew, even if Ididn’t realize it.

The problemis not in being consistent; rather it is in being committed. You are consistentin those things that you have given a bigger reason. You are consistent whenyou know the cost of not doing what you need to do. So look back at commitmentand re-evaluate your reason, your why.

I promiseyou this: When the consistency is great enough, the struggle will never bestrong enough. You will find your way, because you understand what awaits onthe other side. You will go through fear, because you understand therepercussions if you don’t show up. Somebody is depending on your story.Somebody is depending on you in your life. Realize you have to show up nomatter how you feel.

Even withepic consistency, you will not achieve your biggest goals right away. And onthe way to them, you will have setbacks. How do you keep your championshipwinning mindset?

Believe theodds are beatable even when the odds say it is impossible. Trust the process.

What you areworking on is not going to change immediately. Yes, you have been going throughthe pain, putting in the work, and you keep doing it. But you don’t necessarilyknow when the winning moment will come.

A gardenerhas faith in the process of gardening. They know they need to plant the seed,take care of it and be patient. Have faith like the gardener and know that ifyou do the work necessary, stay committed and consistent, then at some pointthe results will show up.

At somepoint, everything will change. Nothing happens overnight, but everything canchange overnight. Be ready.

In all thesuccess I have, I am still me.

Championsunderstand that the process must be trusted. You cannot take shortcuts in theprocess. Some of us want to get there so fast. However, the definition of thegardener’s mindset is this: “You have to know growth is taking place eventhough you cannot see it.” You must trust that you are doing the right thingalthough you cannot physically see it. One day this work will all pay off.

When I startedthe journey that would grow into the writing and speaking career I have now, Isat in my room, creating videos every day from my heart. Every day I plantedseeds. Every day I trusted the process. And every day I grew, even if I didn’trealize it. In the beginning, no one was asking me to be on stages to speak.Now, I have so many requests I have to turn some down. I did the work havingfaith in the process. Many people are not committed to that process. Manypeople will start something and within a month, they throw in the towel andgive up, because the result is not instant and apparent.

I know thatcommitment, discipline, consistency and faith will create the winning mindsetyou need to reach your destination, whatever it may be. But I know that you needone more trait to hold them all together.

Find thestrength to give more even when everything else in your mind is telling youthat you have nothing left.

Heart islooking at life like a marathon. Those who win marathons use each one of thesetraits in the race. They were committed. They trained and eliminateddistractions. They know they can’t sprint to an easy win, so they put faith inevery step, until toward the very end they have to pull from everything theyhave to get through the finish line.

You willreach that point where you have done everything you can, your back is againstthe wall, and you feel like you have nothing left to give. This is the momentyou break through, and create new limits you did not think possible. That iswhat heart is all about. It’s saying, “I am giving my all to this no matterwhat it is; no matter what it looks like, I’m going to keep pushing.”

Heart isalso about staying true to yourself. When you go through all the ups and downsthat you have and you finally reach success, it is easy to become hardened. Inaddition, many people reach success and start to live for those things that donot matter. Once you reach success, do not let the image of what success lookslike for you, define you. Do not let success define you. Do not lose yourselfand leave everything behind to get where you are.

I take pridein living in the moment. I take pride in coaching my son’s football team. Itake pride in living offline. In all the success I have, I am still me.

Once youstart to access your championship mindset and apply it to everything in life,you will notice a change. You will start to see a shift in who you become. Youwill see results.

When youstart, you will wonder, “Can I do this? Can I really take this on?” Then onceyou have honed a winning mindset and use it, you will move on to the secondshift: “I’m actually doing this and it’s working.”

People willtake notice. You are starting to close the gap between vision and reality. Yourvision is no longer just a thought in your mind, but it is taking form. You arecontinuing to make progress by watering the seed. You are staying consistent.So now, you reach the point at which you are doing more than you thought youcould do.

Finally,instead of wondering if you could do it, you will wonder “What can’t I do?”

You will nolonger see limits.

This articleoriginally appeared in the November/December 2019 issue of SUCCESS magazine.Photos by ©Jason Suarez

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