Topley’s Top Ten – September 18, 2019

Author

Matt Topley
September 18, 2019

1.Equities Peak Months Before Recession

Capital Group

2.High Yield Busiest Issuance in 2 Weeks…$1.9B in Retail Inflows.

Bloggersnoted the massive issuance of HY as investors hoover up the debt.—From DaveLutz at Jones Trading

High Yield HYG ETF

3.Historical Evidence for “Successful” Fed Cuts.

Guggenheim

4.Snapshot of Rising Tariffs.

These 4 charts show how US-Chinatrade has changed during the tariff dispute–Yen Nee Lee

5-6.The Daily Shot with Great Summary of Current Homebuilder/Home Buying Market

However, homebuyers have been increasingly concerned about high prices.

And many Americans expect rates to fall even further next year.

Source:@WSJ; Read full article

7.Consumer and Government Spending Dominate GDP.

Chart of the weekComposition of U.S. gross domestic product, 2010-2019

Sources: BlackRock InvestmentInstitute, with data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, September 2019.Notes: The chart shows the annual rate of U.S. GDP growth broken down bycomponents through the second quarter of 2019. Personal and government spendingrefers to a combination of personal consumption expenditures; governmentconsumption expenditures and gross investment. Capex refers to non-residentialdomestic gross investment, and housing refers to residential investment.

BLACKROCK

8.Streaming Wars Update

From Morning Brew Blog

Francis Scialabba Comcast (+0.86%) cannonballed into the video streaming wars yesterday when it revealed the name of the streaming service it’s debuting in April 2020. The name’s “Peacock,” a nod to NBC’s logo. Our upcoming streaming service? “Chart Mug.”  Short on details, long on nostalgia: We don’t know the exact date or Peacock’s pricing (other than it’s free for Comcast cable subscribers), but NBCUniversal is aiming to have a library of 15,000 hours of content at launch. Some of its new offerings:  Saved by the Bell and Punky Brewster reboots  A Battlestar Galactica adaptation  A series based on Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World starring Demi Moore  But don’t call it a pivot to sci-fi—NBCUniversal has also pulled turn-it-on-while-folding-laundry classics from Netflix like The Office (costing $100 million/year) and Parks and Recreation when those shows’ current Netflix deals expire toward the end of 2020.  Netflix can’t seem to make ’em stay. Friends is headed to WarnerMedia’s HBO Max for $425 million. Netflix hopes to fill the ’90s New York sitcom hole with Seinfeld, whose rights it secured this week for over $500 million. And speaking of WarnerMedia…  Pricey Sheldon Yesterday, HBO Max nabbed the exclusive rights to stream The Big Bang Theory domestically as part of a broader TV deal reportedly worth billions. Netflix still has the rights abroad.  The series ended as broadcast’s No. 1 scripted half-hour series in the crucial “avocado toast and renting forever” demographic—adults ages 18–49.  What’s going on: As tech invades Hollywood, every company launching a streaming service is rushing to lock down your favorite series and produce original content.   The winner in all this? TV creators. So quit stalling and submit that pilot.           https://www.morningbrew.com/daily/latest 

Netflix -25% from highs

9.Passive Edges Active.

10.Want to Be a Leader? Lead Yourself First

By Michael Pietrzak | September 11,2019 | 0 

At 16, Nero became theemperor of the most powerful civilization in the world.

Barely out of diapers, heconquered new lands for Rome and quashed rebellions from the comfort of apalace of unimaginable luxury.

Despite his position, Nerohas gone down in history for his extreme brutality—he executed rivals, hisstepbrother and even his own mother. Historians suspect that hestarted the Great Fire of Rome to build a new palace, then blamed Christians asan excuse to execute them.

You’ve probably had a bosswhose sadism and incompetence was not quite Nero-level but still left youwondering, “Who put this maniac in charge?”

Compare Nero’s reign tothat of Marcus Aurelius, a successor. From what we know of “The Last of theFive Good Emperors” through his private writings, he was the leader we’d allwant: balanced and fair, who took initiative, not needing credit or seekingpower, and always eager to grow as a human.

A Mindset, Not a Role

If you’ve been luckyenough to have an Aurelius-type for a boss, you know that great leadership cancreate miracle-like results.

The right leader triples acompany’s client base, solves a global problem, and nurtures his team memberseven beyond his own level.

That leader is effectivenot because of his or her job title but because of a leadership mindset.

Leadership is an attitudewe can apply in every situation. When you start to see eachmoment as an invitation to lead, you’ll leap toward your highest potential.

This is true whether you’rea janitor or a father or a president.

“Not in my job,”you might say. “My boss gives me no autonomy” / “My work is meaningless” / “Theshareholders would never go for it.”

The beauty of leadership?It doesn’t depend on external situations. Nelson Mandela led every day for 27years in prison, though his only possession was a bucket-toilet.

To the true leader, anobstacle is only an exciting opportunity to find a new way forward.

Small Actions Save Lives

On November 18, 1987,commuters at King’s Cross Subway Station in Central London told ticketcollectors about a bit of burning paper on the tracks. But staff were notallowed to leave their booths, so someone told his supervisor, who told hersupervisor. We know how that goes.

In a few minutes, the firewas raging, and when layers of flammable paint in a tunnel ignited, the fireflashed over and killed 31 people, and injured another 100.

The inquiry that followedshowed many fatal causes, but each stemmed back to a failure to lead. Theticket collectors failed to go look. Decades of painters failed to strip oldpaint (which they knew was flammable). And management upheld policies thatdiscouraged initiative.

If one personhad acted as a leader, those lives might have been saved.

In a world facing climatecatastrophe and a resurgence of intolerance, our only hope is for more peopleto see themselves as leaders. Yes, that means you.

6 Self-Leadership Principles

First, you need to showthat you can lead yourself. Here are six leadership principles that you can applyto your own life before you seek to lead others.

1. Take control of your thoughts.

All that’s ever beencreated was first thought. The novel you’re reading, your breakfast burrito,democracy, your general mood—were first ideas.

Top leaders know that whatyou think, you literally become. You cannot afford to let one negative thoughtinto your mind because these spread and manifest in your words and actions.

Do you know any effectiveleaders who complain, ridicule or gossip? ‘Course not, so why would you? If youwant to lead, watch your thoughts constantly and choosepositive ones. Over time, it becomes habit.

2. Take initiative in everysituation.

You probably know someonewho always waits to be told what to do—a co-worker, family member or thatstranger five feet away, idly watching as you struggle with the apartment doorand bags full of groceries.

At work, initiative leadsto advancement. Personal development legend Brian Tracy talks about the time heimmediately started a new project, on a weekend, and uncovered a million-dollarfraud. His bosses were more than impressed.

Initiative is even moreimportant in your own business. Ray Kroc would walk the parking lots of hisMcDonald’s franchises picking up garbage, sending a clear message to hisemployees that details matter. And it’s attention to detail that helpedMcDonald’s succeed (for better or worse).

3. Prioritize “great work.”

We run into a friend wehaven’t seen in a while and ask, “How’s it going?”

“Good—busy. So busy!” isusually the reply.

Virtually everyone’scalendar is stacked tight as a pile of bricks, where no light can get through.Yet what percentage of people would you rate as highly “effective”?

People work, but notalways on what matters. A leader effectively prioritizes his or her own life,ruthlessly cutting the good for the great.

I’d love to shoot under100 on the golf course, bake my own bread and learn to lip read. But for nowI’ve had to back burner these pursuits. Everything has an opportunity cost.

Leaders first make timeand space to reflect on their own life, and then prioritize.

4. Let go of needing to “getcredit.”

When our kids clean theirroom only to collect their allowance.

When a tobacco companyspends $10 million on ads to tout the $50,000 they spent on cancer research.

When a politician finds aclever loophole to use public money to tell you how fiscally responsible he is.

Does this inspire asympathetic response? No. We don’t follow shameless glory-seekers.

A focus on what youcan get brands you as a self-serving. Plus, with one eye onthe credit prize, you have less time and energy to do the job well.

Leaders do their dutywithout needing praise.

5. Keep your cup empty.

A professor of EasternPhilosophy travels to a Tibetan monastery to meet with a guru. They sit as thevisitor relates all that he knows about enlightenment.

“Would you like tea?” asksthe sage.

As he pours, the professorcontinues to talk. The cup overflows.

“What are you doing?” theman asks.

“Like the cup, you’realready full of ideas. How can more go in until you empty your cup?” says theguru.

A leader doesn’t have allthe answers. She is someone who is always on the lookout for better ideas. Andshe applies that attitude full time.

6. Prioritize personal growth.

When I was 24 and shoppingfor a wedding ring, I couldn’t understand why my friends had relationshipproblems. Love was so easy, I thought.

Roughly 15 breakups laterI learned the hard way that, the more you think you have “figured it out,” theharder the fall.

Psychologists who studiedwinning and losing noted the same, fascinating effect. Those who won achallenge became entrenched in their habits while the “losers” reflected andperformed better over time.

In our own lives, we enjoya bit of success but then forget that situations change, and luck plays a rolein that success.

The best antidote togetting stuck in a rut is to treat yourself as your own one man or womancorporation. Leaders set targets, prioritize growth and remain flexible.